SP+ Predicts Final Score for Virginia's Gator Bowl Matchup vs Missouri

What does UVA's SP+ projection look like for its upcoming matchup at the Gator Bowl?

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) attempts to catch the ball in the end zone as Duke Blue Devils cornerback Landan Callahan (21) and safety Dashawn Stone (8) defend in the fourth quarter during the ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are quickly approaching their long-awaited TaxSlayer Gator Bowl matchup against the Missouri Tigers this weekend. Although the Cavaliers were unable to clinch the ACC Championship title, reaching the bowl game is a major accomplishment in itself. After the conference title game, UVA earned a 10-3 overall record and ran 7-1 in conference play.

With the Virginia-Missouri contest just a few days away, let's take a look at how a key projection is looking.

Bill Connelly's Latest SP+ Prediction

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers offensive lineman Drake Metcalf (60) and offensive lineman Grant Ellinger (65) waolk off the field after the game against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images

Bill Connelly of ESPN released his latest SP+ predictions. In Connelly's own words, he explains the process behind SP+:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency that I originally created at Football Outsiders in 2008. SP+ is intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking, so it does not automatically give credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system does. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

With that said, he predicts that Missouri has a 64% chance of winning over Virginia, with a projected score of 28-22. At this time, the Tigers are riding an 8-4 overall record and are 4-4 in the SEC.

SP+ BOWL (AND ARMY-NAVY, AND CFP) PICKS

OU 24, Bama 21
A&M 29, Miami 26
Rebs 39, Wave 21
Ducks 34, Dukes 19
Arch 25, Underwood 24
Pitt 29, ECU 28 (gonna be wonderfully stupid, can't wait)

14 of 40 games proj. w/in 3 pts, 29 w/in one score. I'll take it.https://t.co/oNFJb9ec9k pic.twitter.com/iago4fTOeI

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) December 8, 2025

According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Missouri is listed as a 4.5-point favorite to win, with the over/under set at 45.5. Now, the Cavaliers have a history of securing plenty of upsets this season, so perhaps they will rally and do so again. They have the stronger record, but all signs are pointing toward the Tigers coming out on top. But Elliott stated during his press conference earlier this month:

"We've got one more game. We've got an opportunity to go win 11. That's what I told them. I want that 11th. I think everybody in that locker room wants that 11th. We'll learn from tonight. We'll grow. We're not going to point any fingers except for when you're looking in the mirror you point to yourself on what you can do better, and we're going to grow and we're going to bounce back."

Will the Cavaliers be able to secure one more upset and add an eleventh win to their record, or will their ACC heartbreak have thrown them too far out of their groove?

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