SP+ predicts final score for Virginia's matchup vs Syracuse Saturday

The model predicts a swift recovery

Oct 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Virginia Cavaliers defensive back Donavon Platt (2) celebrates a pass breakup during the first quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia is a difficult team to predict. Some models had the Cavaliers going 10-2, but they have already lost two games before the halfway point of the 2026 season.

A quick rebound could be in order Saturday night against Syracuse.

The SP+ model lists Virginia's win probability at 75 percent, predicting a 31-20 victory. If the final result is favorable for the hosting Cavaliers, the SP+ would improve to 4-2 on the season — mirroring Virginia's record.

Previous projections

The Cavaliers are 3-2 — but SP+ projections had them going 5-0 to start the season. Coincidentally, Virginia was predicted to win by 10 points in both of its double-digit losses. Here are the predictions from the previous five games:

• Florida State: 30-20 win —— actual result 38-7 loss
• Delaware: 37-16 win ——— actual result 42-3 win
• West Virginia: 30-20 win —— actual result 38-27 loss
• Norfolk State: 48-0 win ——— actual result 59-3 win
• NC State: 28-23 win ———— actual result 34-8 win

Naturally, it is difficult to perfectly forecast what will happen in a game. However, SP+ has been inconsistent. SP+ has not come within 15 points of any final result. There is a chance that Saturday could be the first time it does so.

Inside the matchup

Syracuse has started 0-2 in ACC play, falling 21-18 to Cal and 27-13 at Pitt. The Orange are scrambling to keep their season from falling apart, as quarterback Steve Angeli was benched at the tail end of the loss in Pittsburgh due to poor play.

Backup Amari Odom excelled last time out against UConn, throwing for over 300 yards and five touchdowns (although two interceptions in the second half led to a fiery Huskies comeback).

Syracuse had sported an elite defense until UConn torched it for 41 points in an overtime game that the Orange won by a single point. There are questions about how good (or bad) Syracuse actually is. Virginia has some similar questions.

At home, the Cavaliers are averaging 45 points per game at home and have allowed just one touchdown in three games at Scott Stadium. On the road, however, the defense has missed dozens of tackles and the offense has been inefficient.

Virginia has been near-perfect at Scott Stadium since the start of the 2025 season. The Cavaliers have only lost one game during that span (a seven-point loss to Wake Forest after Chander Morris went down).