Virginia's FPI projected win total craters after 3-2 start

FPI has the Cavaliers at roughly half of their previous projected win total

Oct 3, 2026; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Virginia Cavaliers safety Corey Costner (4) intercepts a pass during the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Earlier this season, Virginia was projected to go 10-2 according to ESPN's Football Power Index. That might have been enough for a spot in the ACC Championship game, or at least one of the top bowl games outside of the College Football Playoff.

The Cavaliers are now projected to go 6-6. A decimation courtesy of Florida State has tanked momentum and external respect for Virginia. There has been a tremendously stark contrast between three strong wins and two ugly losses by a team that is still figuring out how to respond to in-game adversity.

Through the first six weeks of play, the Cavaliers have yet to win a game outside of Scott Stadium. They will have to prove themselves — and shake the growing forecast of doubt that is looming over the rest of the season. There are a few games in which Virginia was once a strong favorite but is now an underdog.

Game-by-game projections

Syracuse: 75.6%

Virginia is a strong favorite against one of the ACC's struggling teams. This is one of the rare remaining games in which the Cavaliers are projected to pick up a comfortable win.

At No. 24 SMU: 33.0%

This was likely the most difficult game on Virginia's schedule to start the season. That might still be the case. SMU is the only ranked opponent the Cavaliers will face (as of this week's poll).

Duke: 48.7%

After losing most of its high-end talent this offseason, Duke has recovered beautifully. The Blue Devils are still getting contributions from returners like star running back Nate Sheppard, while also receiving above average play from their transfers.

At Wake Forest: 29.7%

The Demon Deacons have emerged as a genuine ACC contender. This Halloween clash has gone from a winnable game into a suddenly herculean task for the Cavaliers.

California: 86.7%

Time and time again, the Golden Bears have failed to live up to expectations thus far. However, a lot can change between now and mid-November.

North Carolina: 57.6%

The South's Oldest Rivalry has seen some gaudy blowouts. The 2026 rendition might not be one of them. Something resembling the 2025 grueling battle might happen again.

At Virginia Tech: 41.0%

Before the Florida State game, this was regarded as a toss-up — and Virginia was even a slight favorite. Not anymore. This figure looks more like it did at the start of the season, and it has dipped even further than what it was back then.