SP+ Predicts The Final Score For Matchup Between No. 16 Virginia and North Carolina

Who will win Saturday's game between Virginia and North Carolina

Oct 18, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Chandler Morris (4) runs with the ball as Washington State Cougars defensive lineman Bryson Lamb (99) chases in the fourth quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

It was a close call on Saturday, but No. 16 Virginia found a way to get it done against Washington State. The Cavaliers got a late safety to avoid being upset against the Cougars and UVA is now bowl eligible for the first time in Tony Elliott's time in Charlottesville.

Now, Virginia will turn its attention to rival North Carolina. The Cavaliers are in a great position to make a run at the ACC Championship and that starts this weekend against the Tar Heels.

The Cavaliers are of course the favorite to win this game on Saturday, not just by the sportsbooks, but by the advanced metrics as well. ESPN analyst Bill Connelly's SP+ metric projects Virginia to win by a score of 33-20 and gives UVA an overall chance of 79% to win the game.

WEEK 9 SP+ PICKS

OU 28, Ole Miss 23
A&M 26, LSU 25
Vandy 28.3, Mizzou 28.1
Auburn 28.4, Arkansas 28.1
KU 32, K-State 26
USF 33, Memphis 28
Indiana 40, UCLA 13
Horns 27, #Clanga 20
ASU 25.5, Houston 24.5

Smallest avg SP+ vs spread diff since Wk1.https://t.co/A8CM2IKAX1 pic.twitter.com/7h9j3KpOQQ

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) October 19, 2025

Currently, SP+ has Virginia as the No. 50 team in the country, with the No. 38 offense and No. 58 ranked defense. North Carolina is currently ranked 98th in the country, with the No. 111 offense and the No. 78 defense.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

How can UVA win?

Virginia has one of the most prolific offenses in the country, but the Cougars were able to limit the effectiveness of the Cavaliers offense. Virginia barely was able to get over 300 yards of total offense and it was an off day for quarterback Chandler Morris.

Morris had a frustrating game, going 15-25 for 179 yards and there was no explosiveness from receivers Trell Harris and Cam Ross. North Carolina has not had a very good defense (or team for that matter) and UVA has the talent advantage at every position. If they come out sharp, I think this offense is going to score at least 30 points. If not, this game could be closer than the experts think.

Every team typically has a game on the schedule in which they are a massive favorite and then they don't play very well and possibly even lose the game. Miami, Texas Tech, and others lost this past weekend as big favorites and UVA was able to avoid the upset trap against Washington State over the weekend.

Was this a sign of more trouble to come for the Cavaliers or was this just a one-off performance? North Carolina has looked dreadful this season, but they did show signs of life against Cal this past weekend. Now, I think Virginia is better than Cal, but if Virginia comes out and plays like they did against Washington State, it is not a given that they will be able to overcome it against the Tar Heels.