SP+ Predicts Virginia vs Stanford Final Score

Who will win this weekend's ACC matchup between Virginia and Stanford?

Sep 13, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) scores a touchdown against the William & Mary Tribe during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

After getting back in the win column this past Saturday, Virginia begins ACC play this weekend when they welcome Stanford to Charlottesville for the first ever meeting between the two schools. The Cavaliers offense continues to be one of the best in the ACC, but Stanford could pose some challenges for them this week. The Cardinal defense was instrumental in the big upset win over Boston College and is going to be looking for opportunities to create some turnovers against UVA.

Who will win?

Sep 13, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) celebrates with teammates after scoring a during the first half against the William & Mary Tribe at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

Virginia is a big favorite this weekend and SP+ is predicting a victory for the Cavaliers. Bill Connelly's metric has UVA coming out on top with a 32-21 win while giving the Cavaliers a 76% chance to win the game.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Tough Stanford Defense

Sep 13, 2025; Stanford, California, USA; Stanford Cardinal cornerback Collin Wright (6) during the fourth quarter against the Boston College Eagles at Stanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images | Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

Stanford's defense gave Boston College all kinds of problems last week and UVA head coach Tony Elliott had nothing but good things to say about them in his weekly press conference on Tuesday:

"Well, first of all, their entire defense is very experienced. I think they're all seniors or graduates. On the defensive side of the ball, 91 [Clay Patterson] is playing at a high level. He's a matchup problem for any interior guy in a one-on-one situation, so you've got to be smart and how you handle him, and I may have to slide in his direction. Then they do a lot defensively from a structure standpoint to create confusion, and then their second-level guys, their linebackers. When they pressure, they know how to get to the quarterback, so 91 has three sacks, and then they also got a handful of sacks from the second level, so they do a really good job schematically of testing your protection rules, and they get some matchup advantages on backs. That's always something that you're working on, trying to keep the big guys off your back. Their edge guys do a really good job of squeezing the pocket and forcing the quarterback to escape interior-wise, which allows the defensive line, the defensive tackles, to get the ball carried on the ground quickly."

It is a good thing that Virginia has plenty of playmakers on that the offensive side of the ball and that should give them the edge on Saturday.