Three Bold Predictions For Virginia vs Florida State

How will this hot Virginia team perform in an major early season test against a top-ten ranked Seminoles squad?

Sep 20, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) catches a touchdown pass as Stanford Cardinal cornerback Collin Wright (6) defends during the first quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

UVA is facing a daunting opponent in its Week Five matchup. While Stanford was a step up from the tune-up games to begin 2025, this FSU offense has shown to be truly next-level. Quarterback Tommy Castellanos can take this game over if the Hoo's average defense gets caught sleeping early. The Florida State defense also tops the ACC and is now facing an extremely thin UVA offensive line unit.

Let's take a look at three predictions for Week Five:

1. Quarterbacks Combine For Over 425 Passing Yards

Sep 6, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) before the game against the East Texas A&M Lions at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

This is a quarterback clash.

Castellanos is one of the best signal callers in the country. He is a true dual-threat weapon who seems to impact the game on every single play. The senior is connecting on 71% of his passes while also averaging over five yards per carry with five rushing scores. Castellanos says he is fully healthy and ready to go against UVA.

Hoo's quarterback Chandler Morris has shown he is also a reliable dual-threat option, himself. The grad transfer has the 17th-best QBR (81.2) in the nation. He is also rushing for almost 9.5 yards per attempt this season. He's coming off his best passing performance last week against Stanford.

Virginia Defense Allows Over 375 Total Yards

Sep 20, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles wide receiver Michai Danzy (19) scores a touchdown against the the Kent State Golden Flashes during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

This Virginia team is looking good but I don't know if I can trust this defense, still. The Hoo's are also coming off a short week with limited rest and are facing a powerhouse across the line of scrimmage. If you have to have a short week on your schedule, you do not want to see a top-ten team at the end of it.

The Cavaliers have also yet to see a quarterback like Tommy Castellanos. Stanford quarterback Ben Gulbranson - while surprisingly productive against UVA - is not even close to the FSU QB. Castellanos is arguably the best running quarterback in the country and the leader of a top-ten football program.

The Seminoles also have one of the best running games in college football. They collectively have scored 17 touchdowns on the ground to lead the FBS. Four players have four or more scores through four weeks of football.

FSU Wins By Two Scores

Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) looks to pass the ball against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the first half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

I predicted this game to fall in the favor of FSU by a score of 38-24. I think this UVA offense will come out hot but might sputter in the teeth of the Seminoles' staunch defense. I don't think the Hoo's offense will have a bad showing, but a couple of mistakes leading to lost drives in previous weeks are not promising signs for Friday.

As I mentioned before, I also do not think this Virginia defense is going to be able to play with Castellanos and his dynamic offense for four quarters. They have blown coverages against bad teams, and if those mistakes keep happening, this game could be over fairly quickly.

Both teams should get a chance to move their offenses down the field at least for the beginning of this game.