Why 7–5 Duke, Not No. 12 Miami, Is Playing in ACC Championship Game vs. Virginia

Tom Dierberger | 37 Minutes Ago

Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has thrown for 3,450 yards with 28 touchdowns and four interceptions in 12 games this season. / Alex Martin/Greenville News / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Despite losing five games this season, Duke will be playing for an ACC championship on Saturday at Bank of America Stadium.

The unranked Blue Devils (7–5) rode the wave of some complicated ACC tiebreakers to earn a matchup against Virginia (10–2), ranked No. 16 in the AP Top 25 and No. 17 in the latest College Football Playoff rankings. If Virginia wins the game, the Cavaliers will likely make their first CFP appearance in program history. But if Duke wins, all hell breaks loose.

The biggest loser in this ACC title game scenario is Miami (10–2), ranked No. 12 in both the latest CFP rankings and the AP Top 25. The Hurricanes are arguably the ACC’s best shot at a national championship but likely will find themselves on the outside looking in at the 12-team CFP bracket, especially if Virginia wins the game.

Here’s how we got here:

Duke’s path to the ACC championship game

Coming off a 9–4 season and a Gator Bowl appearance in the first year of the Manny Diaz era, Duke started the 2025 campaign 1–2 with losses to No. 11 Illinois and Tulane. They rattled off three wins to start conference play a perfect 3–0 before dropping three contests in a four-week span to No. 12 Georgia Tech, UConn and No. 19 Virginia.

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With two weeks to go, Duke needed everything to go in its favor to have a shot at the ACC title game. And boy, did it ever. The Blue Devils beat North Carolina by a touchdown on Nov. 22, and last weekend unfolded exactly how they needed it to go: a 49–32 win over Wake Forest combined with Pitt losing 38–7 to Miami and SMU dropping a 38–35 nail-biter to Cal.

It all comes down to ACC tiebreakers

Carson Beck and the Miami Hurricanes finished ACC play with a 6–2 record. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

Five ACC teams finished the regular season with identical 6–2 records in conference play: Duke, Miami, Georgia Tech, SMU and Pitt. Of those teams, Duke only played the Yellow Jackets and lost 27–18 back on Oct. 18.

Due to the lack of common opponents for those five teams in the 17-team ACC, the tiebreaker to decide Virginia’s adversary came down to the fifth piece of criteria. It reads:

Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.

Duke was aided here by playing the toughest conference schedule among the five 6–2 teams. The Blue Devils’ eight conference opponents combined for a 32–32 record (.500), which beats the win percentage of opponents for Miami (28–36; .438), Georgia Tech (28–36; .438), SMU (27–37; .422) and Pitt (27–37; .422).

And just like that, the Blue Devils are heading to Charlotte on Saturday to play for an ACC championship with five losses on their résumé.

A win doesn’t mean Duke will advance to College Football Playoff

Even if the Blue Devils avenge their earlier loss to Virginia and win the ACC championship game, they likely won’t be hearing their name called Sunday during the College Football Playoff selection show.

Winning a conference championship game doesn’t automatically punch a team’s ticket to the playoffs, even in one of the Power 4 conferences. The five automatic bids go to the five highest-ranked conference champions. If Duke wins the ACC title game and No. 25 James Madison (11–1) tops Troy on Friday night in the Sun Belt championship, the Dukes—not Duke—will likely get in as one of the five highest-ranked conference champions behind the winners of the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and American conferences.

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