Updated FPI Game-By-Game Predictions For The Rest Of Virginia's Season

While just one game against an overmatched opponent, Virginia has to feel good about what they showed on Saturday. The Cavaliers took care of Coastal Carolina 48-7 and looked explosive in the passing game, and they shut down the run on defense. Will they carry that into this week's game vs NC State?

Before the season, ESPN's FPI predicted Virginia to finish the season 6-6. Did that change after this week's game?

Game 2 at NC State: FPI gives Virginia a 51% chance to win this game (Preseason odds: NC State 64%)

Aug 30, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back Harrison Waylee (21) carries the ball as Coastal Carolina Chanticleers cornerback Myles Mooyoung (8) defends during the second half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

This one certainly has shifted since last week. NC State barely got by East Carolina last week, but they are still favored against the Cavaliers at home this week. This will be a tough test for UVA and if they win, a bowl game is going to be within reach.

FPI projected record: 2-0, 0-0

Game 3 vs William and Mary: FPI gives Virginia a 97% chance to win this game (Preseason: 95%)

Not much has changed in this game projection. Virginia should win and should win by quite a bit.

FPI projected record: 3-0, 0-0

Game 4 vs Stanford: FPI gives Virginia an 81% chance to win this game (Preseason: 62%)

Another game that has seen Virginia's odds rise. Stanford looked atrocious in a loss to Hawaii in week zero and very well could go 0-12 this season. Tony Elliott must win this game and win convincingly.

FPI projected record: 4-0, 1-0

Game 5 vs Florida State: FPI gives Virginia a 50% chance to win this game (Preseason: 55%)

Tommy Castellanos Florida Stat — Aug 30, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Florida State Seminoles quarterback Tommy Castellanos (1) celebrates after a touchdown against the Alabama Crimson Tide during the second half at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-Imagn Images | Melina Myers-Imagn Images

If both teams meet in Charlottesville undefeated, this could be a very interesting game. Florida State obviously looks a lot more formidable now after their win over Alabama and should be a contender in the ACC. If Virginia wants to take a huge step forward as a program, a win here would go a long way towards doing that. With FPI giving each team a 50-50 shot to win, I will give the tiebreaker to the home team.

FPI projected record: 5-0, 2-0

Game 6 at Louisville: FPI gives Louisville a 63% chance to win this game (Preseason: 75%)

While the Florida State game looks a lot tougher, this is still going to be the toughest game on the schedule for UVA. While the odds have shifted towards UVA, they still favor Louisville and the Cardinals end the Cavaliers perfect start.

FPI projected record: 5-1, 2-1

Game 7 vs Washington State: FPI gives Virginia a 90% chance to win this game (Preseason: 81%)

Washington State is 1-0 to start this season, but it could not have been a more uninspiring win. The Cougars defeated Idaho 13-10, but it was as ugly as you can imagine. This should be the victory that gets Tony Elliott to a bowl game.

FPI projected record: 6-1, 2-1

Game 8 at North Carolina: FPI gives Virginia a 73% chance to win this game (Preseason: North Carolina 62%)

Bill Belichick North Carolin — Sep 1, 2025; Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA; North Carolina Tar Heels head coach Bill Belichick on the sidelines in the first quarter at Kenan Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images | Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

This game has a different outlook after what transpired on Monday night. Can North Carolina get better between now and this game? Certainly, but the Tar Heels looked bad against TCU and Virginia is going to have a great chance to go on the road and get a victory, as FPI thinks they will do.

FPI projected record: 7-1, 3-1

Game 9 at California: FPI gives Cal a 58% chance to win this game (Preseason: 64%)

While they only beat Oregon State, California had an impressive week one and true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele looked fantastic. Traveling out West was always going to be tough, but Cal might be better than people think and FPI projects the Cavaliers to lose this game.

FPI projected record: 7-2, 3-2

Game 10 vs Wake Forest: FPI gives Virginia an 86% chance to win this game (Preseason: 70%)

Wake Forest barely survived against Kennesaw State in week one and they look like one of the worst teams in the ACC. They could improve, but the Demon Deacons did not leave a great first impression this past weekend.

FPI projected record: 8-2, 4-2

Game 11 at Duke: FPI gives Duke a 57% chance to win this game (Preseason: 70%)

Duke struggled early with Elon, but pulled away in the second half. The Blue Devils were favored quite a bit in this game by FPI in the preseason, but they are giving Virginia a shot now to win it. This will be a tough game and FPI still favors Duke.

FPI projected record: 8-3, 4-3

Game 12 vs Virginia Tech: FPI is giving UVA a 51% chance to win this game (Preseason: Virginia Tech 66%)

Virginia Tech played South Carolina tighter than many expected, but they still came up short and did not score a touchdown in the game. This would be a fantastic win for Elliott and this program, his first over the Hokies and give Virginia nine wins, with a shot at 10 in the bowl game.

FPI projected record: 9-3, 5-3