Virginia football is shooting for rare sustained success

Expectations are high, but consecutive winning seasons have been few and far between in the 2000s

Virginia Cavaliers center Drake Metcalf (60), center, and other players, hold up the Ash Verlander Champions Trophy after the game of the TaxSlayer Gator Bowl at EverBank Stadium, Saturday, Dec. 27, 2025, in Jacksonville. Fla. Virginia defeated Missouri 13-7. | Corey Perrine/Florida Times-Union / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

Expectations are understandably high for the Virginia football program after a record-setting 2025 season that included a school-record 11 victories and a spot in the Atlantic Coast Conference title game. An experienced roster and a modest conference schedule give the Cavaliers an opportunity for rare back-to-back seasons of success.

How rare? You might be surprised.

Cavaliers aiming high

Nov 29, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott yells from the sidelines against the Virginia Tech Hokies in the third quarter at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | Geoff Burke-Imagn Images

Hall of Fame coach George Welsh retired after the 2000 season, having led the Cavaliers to winning records in 16 of his 19 seasons in Charlottesville. Since then, Virginia has managed just two streaks of consecutive seasons over .500: a four-year run from 2002-05 under Welsh's successor, Al Groh, and winning marks under Bronco Mendenhall in 2018 and '19.

Otherwise, the 21st century hasn't been all that kind to the Cavaliers, with a slew of forgettable seasons in between. Current coach Tony Elliott understands that well, having gone 11-23 in his first three years before last fall's breakout campaign.

We're clearly in a different era of college sports, thanks to NIL money and the transfer portal. While Elliott seems poised to join Groh and Mendenhall's repeat feat, it's worth taking a look back at three keys to Virginia's sustained success under its former coaches and how they could be instructive for the Cavaliers in 2026:

1. Stellar quarterback play

QB performance and success usually go hand in hand, so it's hardly shocking that the three passers who sparked Virginia's 21st -century run of success rank highly on the school's career statistical lists.

Matt Schaub was named ACC player of the year in 2002 before spending 16 seasons in the NFL with four teams. He led the league with 2,976 passing yards and 28 touchdowns in 2002, then followed that up with 2,952 yards in '03.

His successor, Marques Hagans, was a bit more of a game manager who benefitted from a strong running game led by Alvin Pearman and Wali Lundy, but he managed to surpass 2,000 passing yards in both 2004 and '05.

Mendenhall struck gold with quarterback Bryce Perkins and tailored his offense to suit the transfer's speed and versatility. Perkins set a school record with 3,603 total yards in 2018, then shattered it with 4,307 in 2019, when he led Virginia to its first ACC title game and an Orange Bowl appearance. (Brennan Armstrong broke that record in 2021.)

The takeaway: Beau Pribula, Virginia's newest transfer quarterback, doesn't have to be a superstar. He likely can succeed in a role similar to Hagans'. But he'll need to be smart, efficient and productive.

2. Stingy defense

Groh's first Virginia teams were led by stud linebackers. Ahmad Brooks, rated the top high school prospect in the country, was named first-team All-America by The Sporting News in 2004, and Darryl Blackstock posted a pair of double-digit sack seasons (10 in 2002, 11 in 2004). The Cavaliers allowed just 17.7 points per game in 2004, their lowest average for any season this century.

Fourth on that list is Mendenhall's 2018 squad, which allowed a modest 20.1 points per game and shut out South Carolina in the Belk Bowl. That unit was led by all-ACC safety Juan Thornhill, who was drafted in the second round by Kansas City and has spent the past seven seasons in the NFL.

Without Thornhill, Virginia's 2019 defensive numbers were much worse (27.4 points per game), but that was skewed by allowing 62 points to Clemson in the ACC final and 36 to Florida in the Orange Bowl. And with Perkins' offensive heroics, the defense didn't have to be stellar.

The takeaway: Kam Robinson, Fisher Camac and the Cavaliers can make life easier on Pribula with a repeat of last season's effort, when they allowed just 19.6 points per game.

3. Early ACC success

The Cavaliers announced themselves as surprise title contenders last fall by winning their first five ACC games (not including a Week 2 nonconference loss to N.C. State).

That aligns with the template set by Virginia's previous most successful teams this century. Only in 2002 did the Cavaliers fail to win their ACC opener in that year. But they followed up a loss to Florida State with four straight conference victories.

The takeaway: The Week 0 home game against the Wolfpack (moved to Charlottesville from Brazil) won't make or break the season. But it could say a lot about the Cavaliers' chances in 2026.