Virginia Football: SP+ Projects Where UVA Will Finish in The ACC

Oct 19, 2024; Clemson, South Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott on the field gestures during the game against the Clemson Tigers at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images | Alexander Hicks-Imagn Images

2025 is going to be a big season for Tony Elliott and Virginia. The Cavaliers have added a massive transfer portal class, getting big additions in the second, the defensive line, the wide receiver group, and of course, quarterback. After not making a bowl game in Elliott's first three seasons, UVA is primed to return to the postseason for the first time since 2019.

It is not a given, though, and despite the big additions in the portal and what most consider to be the easiest schedule in the power four, most national analysts are still predicting Virginia to finish near the bottom of the ACC. ESPN's Bill Connelly released his ACC preview yesterday and went in-depth about how SP+ sees the conference race playing out this season.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Here is how SP+ sees the ACC race heading into the season:

1. Clemson (8th nationally)

2. Miami (12th)

3. SMU (20th)

4. Louisville (24th)

5. Florida State (36th)

6. Duke (41st)

7. NC State (42nd)

8. Georgia Tech (44th)

9. Virginia Tech (46th)

10. Pittsburgh (47th)

11. North Carolina (54th)

12. Syracuse (56th)

13. Boston College (62nd)

14. Cal (65th)

15. Virginia (79th)

16. Wake Forest (81st)

17. Stanford (88th)

Aug 31, 2024; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers wide receiver Trell Harris (11) celebrates with Cavaliers running back Kobe Pace (5) after scoring a touchdown against the Richmond Spiders during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

"Connelly broke each ACC team into three tiers: Conference and CFP contenders, a couple of breaks away from a run, and just looking for a path to 6-6. The Cavaliers fell into the third tier, and here is how Connelly sees UVA heading into 2025.

On one hand, Virginia improved to 5-7 last year after back-to-back three-win seasons under Tony Elliott. The defense was solid against the run and on third downs, and the offense showed hints of an identity, with a fast tempo and a decent run game.

On the other hand, UVA played six top-50 teams and went 0-6 with an average loss of 36-17. SP+ saw barely any improvement whatsoever -- after averaging a 95.0 SP+ ranking in Elliott's first two seasons, they were 91st in 2024. They were horrific at both passing (113th in yards per dropback) and stopping opponents from doing so (118th).

After going .500 or better in each of Bronco Mendenhall's last four seasons (average SP+ ranking: 45.8), UVA has just been terrible under Elliott. And this being the mid-2020s, Elliott will attempt to save his job via the portal. He welcomes 31 transfers to Charlottesville, and a vast majority of them are upperclassmen. Quarterback Chandler Morris (North Texas) can wing the ball around, and I really like the running back duo of Harrison Waylee (Wyoming) and J'Mari Taylor (NC Central). I'm not sure whom Morris will be throwing to -- Purdue transfer Jahmal Edrine and returnee Trell Harris are probably the biggest big-play threats -- but thanks to seven transfers, almost the entire O-line two deep could be made up of seniors.

I like the D-line playmakers Elliott brought in: ends Fisher Camac (UNLV), Cazeem Moore (Elon) and Daniel Rickert (Tennessee Tech) combined for 38.5 TFLs and 20.5 sacks last season, and tackles Jacob Holmes (Fresno State) and Hunter Osborne (Bama) are active for their size. The linebacking corps is probably the best unit on the team thanks to returnees Kam Robinson, Trey McDonald and James Jackson, but with most of the starting secondary gone, UVA will welcome eight transfer DBs.

Will this work? I'd be surprised. And even if it does, Elliott will have to sign about another 30-40 transfers next year just to account for the loss of so many seniors. But the schedule is light, featuring only two projected top-40 teams (and none in the top 20), and UVA is probably better at QB and on both lines than last year. Bowl eligibility is a possibility, at least."

Virginia has not been bowl eligible since going 6-6 after the 2021 season, but they have not actually played in a bowl game since making the Orange Bowl in 2019 after going 9-3 and losing to Clemson in the ACC Championship.

Yes, it has been that long.

They open the season at home against Coastal Carolina and the Chanticleers are not supposed to be one of the better teams in the Sun Belt. A telling game this season will be in week two, when Virginia goes on the road to face NC State. The Wolfpack are always tough to beat at home, but they have lost a lot of talent this offseason and are beatable. If Virginia can win that, a bowl game should be within reach.

William & Mary plus Stanford should be gimmes for the Cavaliers and at worst, they should be 3-1 to start the season. They will be underdogs at home vs Florida State, but the Seminoles have plenty of question marks as well and could be vulnerable to an upset away from Tallahassee. It is anyone's guess as to how they look this season.

Going on the road to beat Louisville might be too tough of a task but Virginia did almost clip the Cardinals last season. After a bye week, a home game against Washington State is not super intimidating considering their roster and coaching staff turnover this offseason and then another interesting matchup on the road at North Carolina. How the Tar Heels will look under Bill Belichick is anyone's guess.

All four November games are winnable. Cal and Wake Forest are projected to be among the worst teams in the league, though the Cal game is on the road. Duke on the road will be tough, and then to finish the season, Virginia has their annual rivalry game with Virginia Tech. The path is there for Elliott and the Cavaliers to make a bowl game, but they have to prove it on the field.