What are the Advanced Analytics Saying About Virginia's Chances to Beat Virginia Tech?

How are the odds looking for the Virginia Cavaliers ahead of their matchup against Virginia Tech?

Nov 8, 2025; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott watches players prior to their game against the Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | Amber Searls-Imagn Images

The Virginia Cavaliers are just days away from one of the most important games of their 2025 season. On Nov. 29, they will be facing Virginia Tech for their regular-season finale, where they will have one shot at reaching the ACC Championship.

Heading into the matchup, let's take a look at ESPN's latest FPI. However, before we delve into things, what does FPI tell us? As explained by ESPN:

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through 128; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI."

Where Does UVA Stand?

Nov 15, 2025; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Cavaliers running back J'Mari Taylor (3) runs the ball during the first quarter against the Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Zachary Taft-Imagn Images | Zachary Taft-Imagn Images

The FPI gives the Cavaliers an 80.1% chance of winning this matchup — a comfortable position to be in, but a daunting one for the Hokies, who are left with a 19.9% chance of winning.

While at face value, it looks like the Cavaliers have a clear path to victory, it is going to take immense effort to come out on top. Prior to their latest matchup over Duke, UVA's offense was starting to sputter, and now, coming off a bye week, only time will tell if they lost their offensive momentum once again. As Elliott stated during his postgame press conference:

"So, it was huge to be able to establish the run, and then it was good for the quarterback because he was able to extend some third downs and get us out of some tough situations, and it just breathes confidence, right? And so then the defense goes out and they do their job, and then you get another opportunity to go back out there. So, it was huge to get off to a fast start. That's what we talk about all the time. That's part of our plan to win: a fast start, win the middle eight, and then dominate in the fourth."

Kickoff for the Virginia-Virginia Tech matchup is scheduled for 7 p.m. EST at Scott Stadium on Nov. 29. Given that this is their regular-season finale, pressure is on and energy will be radiating from the stadium. Now is the time for the Cavaliers to zero in on the end goal and finally clinch a spot in the ACC Championship.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.