FPI Predicts Virginia vs. SMU Showdown, Updates UVA Win Total

The ACC outlook continues to evolve

Virginia Cavaliers wide receivers celebrate a touchdown against the Syracuse Orange. | Courtesy Virginia Athletics

After a brutal defeat at Florida State, Virginia's season outlook took a major turn for the worse, according to ESPN's Football Power Index. The Cavaliers' win over Syracuse did little to change projections for the rest of the season.

Virginia is still projected to go 6-6, although the odds for each game have shifted. Some of the Cavaliers' opponents have become more difficult to face. There are also a few teams that have begun to take a step back.

Here are the updated FPI projections for the rest of Virginia's season.

At No. 24 SMU: 31.4% chance of victory (Previously 33.0)

These odds could be very low for a number of reasons. A big one is that Virginia looked lost for most of its game against Syracuse. Another is that the Mustangs are coming off a bye, and at home. SMU has gone 8-1 at home in ACC play since it joined the conference. It makes sense why the Cavaliers are heavy underdogs.

Duke: 50.5% chance of victory (Prev. 48.7)

Duke just suffered its first loss of the season, falling at Georgia Tech in upset fashion. It is becoming clear that the Blue Devils are firmly attached to their star running back, Nate Sheppard. He has been producing superhuman efforts to elevate an otherwise pedestrian offense. Meanwhile, the Blue Devils defense might be a bit short on depth.

At Wake Forest: 21.5% chance of victory (Prev. 29.7)

This has become one of the hardest games on Virginia's schedule. In one of the most shocking developments in the ACC, Wake Forest has become one of the top teams in the conference and might stand the best chance of challenging Miami in the ACC title game. For the Cavaliers, this could be a season-changing game.

California: 82.4% chance of victory (Prev. 86.7)

The Golden Bears are still a puzzling team. Their blowout loss to UCLA in the season opener seems less bad (the Bruins are currently ranked No. 12), but a loss at UNLV is inexcusable for a serious Power Four team. Cal did rebound with a win over Virginia Tech, and is 2-1 in ACC play.

North Carolina: 48.9% chance of victory (Prev. 57.6)

North Carolina may be a sneaky ACC contender. The Tar Heels put up a great fight against No. 3 Notre Dame (losing 37-26), and they own wins over TCU and Pitt — both away from home. This team is not invincible, as it blew a lead at Clemson, but North Carolina could give Virginia a big scare just like last season.

At Virginia Tech: 42.9% chance of victory (Prev. 41.0)

Virginia's odds went up after the Hokies lost a second consecutive ACC game. Virginia Tech has made self-inflicted errors throughout the season, and now that it is in ACC play, the Hokies are sliding. However, any game at Lane Stadium will be an extremely intense atmosphere. The Cavaliers can never overlook that team over the mountains.