Key Takeaways From Virginia's NCAA Men's Lacrosse Tournament Draw

Matt Newton | May 6, 2024

Ryan Colsey looks to pass the ball during the Virginia men's lacrosse game against Robert Morris at Klockner Stadium. / Virginia Athletics

The 2024 NCAA Men's Lacrosse Championship has arrived and it's a brand new season for each of the 17 teams who earned bids into the tournament. That "new season" part is especially important for the Virginia Cavaliers, who limp into the tournament in the midst of a four-game losing streak.

Of course, it must be noted that the vast majority of college lacrosse teams would have likely gone 0-4 over the stretch UVA endured in the last four weeks, losing to eventual No. 2 seed Duke, a team that has had Virginia's number for two full decades now, by six on the road, losing to No. 4 seed Syracuse by one on the road, and then suffering back-to-back losses to the No. 1 seed and presumptive frontrunner to repeat as national champs, Notre Dame, by two goals and then nine goals in the ACC semifinals last Friday in Charlotte.

But even though none of those qualify as "bad" losses, it's still fair to say the following:
1.) Virginia is not riding any semblance of momentum going into the NCAA Tournament
2.) Virginia has many issues to address before its first round game against a red-hot St. Joe's squad
3.) Virginia cannot currently be considered a top contender to win it all or even reach Championship weekend since all five of its losses have come to teams the Cavaliers are likely to encounter on their path to Memorial Day.

With that said, Virginia still has an excellent track record of playing its best lacrosse in May under Lars Tiffany and the Cavaliers still have Connor "Mr. May" Shellenberger on their roster, so they can't be ruled out until they are actually eliminated. As the Wahoos look to turn things around and make a deep run in the tournament, let's examine Virginia's NCAA Tournament draw and track UVA's possible path to NCAA national championship #8.

Click here to see the full bracket for the 2024 NCAA Men's Lacrosse Championship.

Seeding

Beginning with Virginia's seed, No. 6 overall in the tournament, it might be somewhat surprising to some that the Cavaliers still managed to be such a high seed despite their brutal last four weeks. It's true, there aren't many teams that could snag a top 8 seed and get to host an NCAA Tournament game after ending the season on a four-game losing streak. But UVA's resume was undeniable: 5th in RPI, 3rd in strength of schedule. That was helped significant by some fortunate Championship Week results, as midweek victories over Towson and Albany were validated by those teams winning their respective conferences, as was UVA's season-opening win over Michigan when the Wolverines went on a miracle run to win the Big Ten Championship for the second year in a row. That gave Virginia a total of four wins against teams that made the tournament on top of semi-quality victories over Harvard, North Carolina, and Richmond.

That was enough to offset UVA's five losses to the top four seeds in the tournament and allowed the Cavaliers to not only host another game at Klockner Stadium (Saturday at noon on ESPNU), but avoid the top 2 seeds of the tournament until the Final Four (more on that later).

First Round Matchup

So, who is coming to Charlottesville to battle the Cavaliers this Saturday? Saint Joseph's began the season 0-3 with losses to Boston U, Duke, and Towson, but then proceeded to win its next 12 games, including a 17-13 victory over Richmond to claim the Atlantic 10 Championship and automatic bid, sending the Hawks to the NCAA Tournament for just the second time in program history. We'll do a deeper dive into the scouting report on St. Joe's later this week, but for now here's a snapshot of some things to know about the Hawks.

St. Joe's and Virginia have played four common opponents this season. Both teams had bad experiences playing at Duke, with the Hawks falling to the Blue Devils 19-10 and the Cavaliers continuing their mind-boggling regular season losing streak to Duke with an 18-12 loss at the outset of their four-game losing skid. Towson beat St. Joe's 15-7, while Virginia posted a 19-15 victory at Towson. Both teams manhandled Drexel in home games and UVA earned a tough 14-10 win at Richmond, while St. Joe's defeated Richmond twice (10-9 and 17-13) in a one-week span to secure the Atlantic 10 title.

St. Joe's has the ninth-ranked scoring defense in the country, averaging 9.57 goals allowed per game. The Hawks rank 10th in caused turnovers (9.64 per game) and are second nationally in man-down defense, killing 80.9% of their penalties. College lacrosse has seen first round matchups become increasingly challenging for the seeded home team in recent years and this one should be no exception. The Cavaliers can and should win this game, but will only do so if they play much better than they did last week against Notre Dame.

Path to the Title

Taking a look at UVA's overall bracket draw, given the number of tough teams the Cavaliers played (and lost to) this season, it was unlikely that Virginia was going to get lucky enough to avoid bad matchups entirely, but this path is actually relatively favorable for Lars Tiffany's crew.

The one team Virginia wants nothing to do with right now is Notre Dame, as the Cavaliers have lost to the Fighting Irish twice by a combined 11 goals in the last 10 days and would likely face a similar fate if they met them again anytime soon. As the No. 1 overall seed, Notre Dame is on the other side of the bracket and UVA won't see the defending champs until the national title game. By then, the Cavaliers would have hopefully sorted themselves out enough to give the Irish a run for their money in round 3.

If Virginia gets past St. Joe's in the first round, the quarterfinals would likely present a rematch with Johns Hopkins (assuming the Blue Jays beat Lehigh in the first round on Sunday), who came in to Klockner and handed the Cavaliers their first loss of the season, 16-14, back on March 2nd. Virginia let that game slip away after leading by two goals late in the third quarter. It's absolutely a winnable game for the Cavaliers if they can fix some things and get back to playing their best lacrosse, though the Blue Jays will have a slight home field advantage as that game would be played in Towson, Maryland.

Should Virginia have the fortune of advancing to the Final Four for the second year in a row, that semifinal matchup will likely be against No. 2 Duke, with the other possibilities being No. 7 Maryland, Princeton, or Utah (extremely unlikely). UVA would be heavily favored against Maryland or Princeton, but Duke would of course have a significant edge (especially psychologically) over Virginia. The Blue Devils have won 19-straight regular season meetings against the Cavaliers and are 24-2 in the last 26 games in the series overall. Virginia did beat Duke in the Final Four in 2019 in Philadelphia, so there's a precedent for the Cavaliers finding a way to win when it matters most. But of that 2019 team that last experienced the taste of victory against Duke, only Payton Cormier remains and he redshirted that 2019 season. So the odds would be stacked against the Cavaliers, but at this point, just being in the Final Four would be a favorable outcome for Virginia.

Overall, there's not much more the Cavaliers could have hoped for in their NCAA Tournament draw. St. Joe's is a formidable first round opponent that should not be overlooked and the possible quarterfinal matchup with Johns Hopkins would be a challenging battle. But, the two teams that manhandled Virginia this season - Duke and Notre Dame - can't face UVA until the semifinals at the earliest. The Cavaliers need only get past St. Joe's and then find a way to avenge their two-goal loss to Johns Hopkins in order to reach Championship Weekend. Virginia needs a hard mental reset and to address some glaring issues, but a successful run in the NCAA Tournament is certainly possible.