Previewing Virginia Basketball's Path Through the ACC Tournament

Despite losing their final game of the regular season, the Virginia Cavaliers managed to earn the No. 9 seed and the final first round bye in the 2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament, which begins this week at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, North Carolina. It's been and up-and-down season for the Cavaliers, who have had to navigate myriad distractions and challenges going back to when Tony Bennett announced his retirement. But for Ron Sanchez and company, this tournament represents a chance to reset and put the development and growth this team has experienced over the last few months on full display.

As Virginia looks to make a run in Charlotte, let's take a look at the Cavaliers' ACC Tournament draw and go round-by-round through their potential path to the title game.

Second Round: No. 8 seed Georgia Tech

Wednesday at 12pm ET on ESPN

All things considered, Virginia getting a first round bye has to be seen as a good thing. Some have argued that the Cavaliers would have preferred to play in the first round if it meant avoiding Duke in the quarterfinals, but even getting out of the first round wouldn't have been guaranteed for UVA, who likely would have faced a team who had beaten Virginia in the regular season in that first round matchup. Instead, the Hoos bypass the Tuesday games and draw a relatively favorable matchup against Georgia Tech.

In the regular season meeting between these two teams, the Cavaliers celebrated Tony Bennett Day at John Paul Jones Arena by defeating the Yellow Jackets 75-61. Both teams shot the ball well from three-point range, with Georgia Tech hitting eight threes on 44.4% while Virginia hit 11 threes on 40.7%. UVA won the game by outrebounding Georgia Tech 38-24, outscoring the Yellow Jackets 34-28 in the paint and 10-4 in bench points, and turning eight Georgia Tech turnovers into 13 points and 13 offensive rebounds into 16 second-chance points. Virginia's front court played well in the first meeting and that will have to be the case again as the Hoos look to contain 6'9" forward Baye Ndongo (13.6 ppg, 9.1 rpg) and prevent the Yellow Jackets from getting revenge. Though Virginia won the first game by double-digits, expect the rematch to be more closely-contested.

Quarterfinals: No. 1 seed Duke

Thursday at 12pm ET on ESPN/ESPN2

Should Virginia manage to get past Georgia Tech in the second round, the Cavaliers will have to recover quickly as they face the top-seed and regular season champion Duke less than 24 hours later. The Blue Devils are coming off of one of the most dominant regular seasons in the history of the ACC, winning a league-record 19 ACC games and dropping just three games overall. Cooper Flagg is likely to be the ACC Freshman and overall Player of the Year and his supporting cast is just as good.

When Duke visited Virginia on February 17th, the Blue Devils attacked UVA's switch-heavy defense and took advantage of mismatches for easy layups and open shots, building a lead as large as 27 points and leaving John Paul Jones Arena with an 80-62 victory. Flagg and former UVA recruit Kon Knueppel had 17 points apiece, and fellow freshman Isaiah Evans knocked down five threes and had 17 points off the bench. Virginia got a combined 44 points from Andrew Rohde, Dai Dai Ames, and Isaac McKneely, but simply could not keep up with the Blue Devils, who got to the rim at will, outscoring the Cavaliers 42-18. Any chance of UVA pulling off this massive upset will require outstanding efforts from its front court, particularly Anthony Robinson and Jacob Cofie, to contend on the glass and defend the paint.

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2025 ACC Men's Basketball Tournament bracket | Atlantic Coast Conference

Semifinals: No. 4 Wake Forest or No. 5 North Carolina

Friday at 7pm ET on ESPN/ESPN2

If Virginia can somehow pull off one of the most shocking upsets of this college basketball season and knock off Duke, the Cavaliers will ride high into a semifinal matchup against either No. 4 seed Wake Forest or No. 5 seed North Carolina. The Hoos should be feeling pretty good about their chances at that point, with the confidence boost of an impressive win over Duke combined with the previous results against North Carolina and Wake Forest.

Virginia lost at North Carolina 81-66, but the Tar Heels punched the Cavaliers in the mouth out of the gate, jumping out to a 21-2 lead. The rest of the game was very competitive, with Virginia trimming the deficit to just eight points on multiple occasions in the second half. That initial hole proved to be too big to climb out of, but if UVA can get off to a better start, the Cavaliers can absolutely compete with the Tar Heels on a neutral floor.

As for Wake Forest, Virginia will have the mental edge in this hypothetical rematch, as the Cavaliers stunned the Demon Deacons on their home floor just a couple of weeks ago in Winston-Salem. Behind 27 points from Isaac McKneely and double-digit efforts from three other Cavaliers, Virginia built a lead as large as 14 points and held off a desperate Wake team for an 83-75 victory. As with Georgia Tech, there's always the possibility that the Deacs could play better in the rematch with the motivation of revenge fueling them, but it's still an overall favorable matchup for Virginia in the semis.

Championship: No. 2 Louisville or No. 3 Clemson

Saturday at 8:30pm ET on ESPN

It's possible that a dark horse contender like SMU, Stanford, or even a team playing in the first round could go on a run like NC State did last year. But the likeliest outcome is that Virginia would face No. 2 seed Louisville or No. 3 seed Clemson in the title game should the Cavaliers advance that far. The Hoos would be playing their fourth game in as many days in that scenario, but you'd have to think that the confidence and momentum from having beaten Georgia Tech, Duke, and then Wake/UNC in a row would override any issues of stamina or endurance.

Much to the pleasure of Louisville fans, the Cardinals finally flipped the script on the Cavaliers this season after a decade of dominance by UVA over Louisville since the Cards joined the ACC. Louisville swept the regular season series with Virginia and neither game was particularly close, with the Cardinals running the Cavaliers off the floor in their own gym 70-50 and then beating them again 81-67 two weeks later in Louisville. Virginia is a much better team now than in early January, but Louisville has been even better, going 11-1 since then and finishing second in the ACC standings, a remarkable turnaround in year 1 under Pat Kelsey. It's hard to beat a team three times in a season, but this would be almost as much of an uphill battle for Virginia as the quarterfinal matchup with Duke.

Clemson would be a better matchup for Virginia, but not by much. The Tigers went into JPJ and rallied from down 10 points to beat the Cavaliers 71-58. Ian Schieffelin had a 13-point, 10-rebound double-double in the second half alone and Clemson shot 55.6% from the floor after halftime as compared to 39.3% for Virginia. As has been the case in many of UVA's losses this season, Clemson dominated Virginia in the paint 48-24 and won the rebounding battle by a margin of 10. Again, the UVA front court must be up for the task in order to win matchups like this.

Stay tuned to Virginia Cavaliers On SI for extensive coverage of Virginia at the ACC Tournament.

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