SP+ predicts final score for Virginia's matchup against West Virginia

The Cavaliers and Mountaineers square off for the first time in over 20 years

Sep 11, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) looks on during the second quarter against the Norfolk State Spartans at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

This week, No. 25 Virginia takes a short trek down to Charlotte, N.C. to take on West Virginia in the Duke’s Mayo Classic. It is an intriguing test against a Big 12 team, particularly one with several flaws but also upside to steal a win against a ranked opponent.

Bill Connelly’s SP+ metric forecasts a 30-20 Cavaliers triumph, which would have Virginia covering the spread (-9.5). Virginia is listed as having a 73% chance of victory.

According to SP+, the Cavaliers have the second-highest chance of winning across the whole slate of inter-conference Power Four games, only behind Alabama’s 84% chance of victory against Florida State.

Despite the fact that West Virginia allowed 27 points at home against Coastal Carolina to open the season, SP+ predicted somewhat of a defensive battle in Charlotte. The listed over/under for total points is 54.5, and SP+ went with the under.

Sep 11, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers linebacker Kam Robinson (5) reacts to a play during the second quarter against the Norfolk State Spartans at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

It is possible the Mountaineers score 20 points against an elite Cavaliers defense. It is also possible (if not highly likely) that Virginia scores more than 30 points. The Cavaliers are currently averaging over 47 points per game — including a 34-point beatdown against a talented NC State team. 

Since Coach Rich Rodriguez returned to Morgantown, W.Va. for another stint as head coach, his defenses have been generally abominable against ranked opponents. The Mountaineers lost 38-24 at No. 23 BYU, won 45-35 at No. 22 Houston and lost 49-0 to No. 7 Texas Tech last year.

That is a small sample size — and entirely from the 2025 season — but the troubling trend continued against the Chanticleers at home. If Coastal Carolina could score 27 points on the road, what could a thriving Virginia offense do on a neutral site?

The Cavaliers are used to playing strong opponents in primetime — both last season and in the early goings of the 2026 campaign. They also have history at Bank of America Stadium and will be looking to avenge last year's ACC Championship defeat.

But while Virginia is overly experienced and full of depth, West Virginia is still finding its footing in the reprise of the Rodriguez era. The Mountaineers are just 3-7 against Power Four opponents since Rodriguez returned to Morgantown. One of those wins was against a disastrous Colorado team.

For the Cavaliers, this is just another nameless, faceless opponent on the path to great success. For West Virginia, however, this is an opportunity to escape mediocrity and prove it can compete in the ardous Big 12.