Updated FPI game-by-game projections for Virginia heading into week two

As of Tuesday, ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts the Cavaliers will go 10-2 this season — although the game at Virginia Tech is as close to a toss-up as it gets.

Now that every team has played at least one game, FPI has been adjusted based on both Virginia and its opponents. Here is the game-by-game breakdown.

Norfolk State — 99% chance of victory

It would be a stupendous shock if Friday’s game is remotely close. The result of this contest was never and will never be in doubt.

West Virginia — 84.9% chance of victory

The Mountaineers barely scraped by Coastal Carolina at home. That is a bad sign, especially given that Virginia is leagues better than the Chanticleers. West Virginia’s defense was exposed and might cost them in this neutral site contest in Charlotte.

Delaware — 89.9% chance of victory

These odds are surprisingly low. The Blue Hens have not faced an FBS opponent yet, although they have Vanderbilt on the schedule this week. A blowout loss should boost the odds closer towards about 97% for the Cavaliers.

At Florida State — 53.9% chance of victory

Virginia’s odds have improved in this game, especially after the Seminoles defense allowed well north of 500 yards of total offense against SMU — and their offense failed to capitalize on four Mustang turnovers and a missed field goal. Florida State has the worst ACC record over the past two seasons and does not look like a genuine threat in the conference.

Syracuse — 77.3% chance of victory

Virginia’s Homecomings game has held steady in terms of projections. The Orange beat up on a subpar FCS team and have to prove themselves against a genuine Power Four contender.

At SMU — 34.6% chance of victory

These odds continue to dwindle (slightly). SMU had some ugly moments but still eked out a win at Florida State. The Mustangs remain firmly in the ACC’s No. 2 tier with the Cavaliers and a few others.

Duke — 73.6% chance of victory

The Blue Devils were great defensively but average offensively against Tulane. Virginia will be a starkly different task for them to handle. Duke may be a little too high at 27.3%, but perhaps that number decreases in a few weeks?

At Wake Forest — 62.5% chance of victory

A road favorite at near 63% could be a slight overestimate. The Demon Deacons are a feisty bunch capable of mind-boggling upsets. Virginia learned this last year. The Cavaliers will not underestimate Wake Forest this time around.

California — 90.8% chance of victory

Near 91% feels way too low against a talented ACC team. The Golden Bears were beyond mediocre defensively and had a few offensive miscues, but they still have a budding star at quarterback and the talent to upset any opponent.

North Carolina — 69.8% chance of victory

Virginia’s odds have taken a major dip in this game after the Tar Heels upset TCU. The Cavaliers should still be favored by about 76% based on North Carolina’s continual offensive struggles.

At Virginia Tech — 49.4% chance of victory

This figure does not bode well for the Hokies. As the hosting team, they are just 0.7% away from being underdogs in a crucial rivalry game. This also says a lot about how well Virginia is viewed. The Cavaliers might even be favored in a month or two.

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