Staff Predictions for Virginia at No. 24 SMU: Can UVA Pull Off the Upset?

The Cavaliers are underdogs for the first time this season

Oct 10, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula (7) passes the ball against the Syracuse Orange during the first half at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Saturday, Virginia takes the field for what is looking like a must-win game against No. 24 SMU.

The game will be a great challenge for the inconsistent Cavaliers. On the other hand, it is also a tremendous opportunity to pick up a ranked road win and get the season back on track. Here are staff predictions for the pivotal ACC duel:

Jackson Caudell: Virginia 24, SMU 38

The vibes for UVA heading into this game are not great. They have not looked good against an FBS team this season, aside from the week zero win over NC State (remember that?), and SMU is coming off a bye week after an unsteady start to the year. This is a bit of an elimination game when it comes to the ACC race, and the Mustangs are the more trustworthy team.

Virginia is banged up in the secondary and still having trouble scoring on offense. SMU has one of the top passing games in the country and should be able to do just enough to win and diminish the Cavaliers' ACC hopes. 

Xander Tilock: Virginia 21, SMU 20

I'm going to break up the consensus and take a risk here. Nearly everyone thinks SMU is invincible, but I don't see it. On paper, this should be an elite Mustangs team, but it really isn't. The same applies to Virginia. SMU would not be ranked right now if it didn't start the season with a numerical prefix.

The Mustangs coughed up four turnovers at Florida State, gave up 24 points to lowly Missouri State and looked incredibly average against Louisville and Boston College. SMU is beatable. It is going to require a truly perfect game from the Cavaliers, and I believe they are capable of doing so. Maybe.

Injuries are costly — but Justin Ross, Montino Williams and Christian Ellis have been well above average when they have seen the field. Virginia has a stellar defense if it cleans up the missed tackles. The real test is on offense (Rico Flores Jr. and Kam Courtney are out), but if the Cavaliers can get a few possessions with quality field position, they have a chance to score.

This is the final chance for the Cavaliers to prove themselves. Perhaps they do so.

Steve DeShazo: Virginia 20, SMU 38

Statistically, Virginia boasts the ACC's stingiest pass defense (161.8 yards per game).  But several of the key players (Brandyn Hillman, Omillio Agard and Corey Costner)  who helped compile that number are unlikely to play. And unless Virginia's dormant pass rush awakens against a team that has allowed six sacks in five games, Kevin Jennings could have another field day.

If the Cavaliers can run the ball, control the clock and ask Daniel Sparks to pin SMU deep with 70-yard punts, they have a chance. But everything points to a familiar outcome away from Scott Stadium.

Even at full strength, it would be a huge ask for Virginia to do what no ACC opponent has done in three seasons: walk out of Ford Stadium with a victory. Given the Cavaliers' 0-2 record away from home this season and an injury list that would make M*A*S*H surgeons call for backup, it seems almost impossible.