The Snowmageddon Double-header Part I Plus/Minus: UNC Blitzes Virginia Men’s Basketball

Minus

Virginia had won eight of the previous nine matchups with UNC at the JPJ and through the first half, it looked like the team was going to make it nine for ten. With two minutes left in the half, Johan Grunloh made one of two free throws to give Virginia a 43 – 27 lead. It was all downhill from there as UNC would score 57 points in the next 22 minutes.

Minus

UNC’s Seth Trimble then went 1/2 from the line. There were 90 seconds remaining. Every player, coach, armchair pundit would be thinking: If we can make a couple of stops, hit a couple buckets, maybe we can go into halftime with a little momentum. UNC did just that on back-to-back threes by Luka Bogovac and Derek Dixon. When Dixon got the ball, there were 37 seconds on the clock and he just pounded the rock for 25 seconds before letting fly. There were six seconds left in the half and Virginia should have called time out. After thoroughly outclassing UNC for 18 minutes, the Cavaliers had let the Tar Heels close to single digits. As announcer Corey Alexander repeated several times, UNC is a second-half team, and Ryan Odom should have known that. Virginia should have had a real opportunity to score. Odom had not used a timeout yet, so he had one to burn. He did not.

UNC went into the locker on a bounce, and they came out on a bounce (17 – 9 run) and made this a game. That was coaching malfeasance.

Plus

UNC’s Caleb Wilson is a likely lottery draft pick, and it was easy to see why on a day like today where he scored 20 when he didn’t play particularly well. (I had no idea he was 6’ 10”.) Because of Virginia switches, Chance Mallory (all 5’ 10” of him) drew the coverage on Wilson. Three times UNC went down low to Wilson to “exploit” the mis-match. Wilson didn’t score once. Mallory just out-toughed him.

Then, late in the first half, Mallory tried to take Jarin Stevenson, also 6’ 10” to the rim. Stevenson was reportedly a target of Tony Bennett’s three years ago, is a great defender with quick feet. He recovered, denying Mallory the shot. Mallory, showing all the footwork of a back-to-the-basket big, pivoted, spun and pivoted again before finally bodying Stevenson (did I mention he’s 6’ 10”?) and sinking the bucket. Unreal. In my notes, I wrote: Mallory just too strong down low. Who had that on their pre-season Bingo card? Mallory finished with 11 points, three rebounds and three assists.

Minus

In UNC’s three ACC road losses this season, the Tar Heels had given up an average of 15 threes while allowing opponents to shoot over 50% from the arc. Virginia came in averaging 10 made threes a game on 38% shooting. Rather than having a better-than-average performance from deep, they were much worse: 8/27, or if you don’t want to do the math, 29.6%. That’s simply not going to get the job done.

Minus

Virginia is a jump-shooting team and will live and die by the three. Virginia’s fate was perfectly illustrated in this game: 6/15 in the first half. That’s 40% and it helped Virginia get that 16-point lead. Then in the second half, Virginia shot 2/12 from deep and that lead evaporated as the Hoos would ultimately lose.

Minus

I coach middle school girls soccer. I tell my girls that there three speeds in sport: the jog, the stride and the sprint. I tell them that sprinting is for when you want to score, or conversely when you have to cover someone who is intent on scoring. Well, Virginia failed that test today. Repeatedly. Several times Virginia players were dropping back onto D, jogging or striding. UNC was flat-out sprinting. Three trips in a row, as UNC was turning a 56 – 53 deficit into a 61 – 58 lead Caleb Wilson and Jarin Stevenson blitzed Virginia to the rim. Three times in. a. row. That was the ball game right there.

Plus

Virginia had four runs of 7 – 0 or better.

Minus

And yet the Hoos lost.

Plus

Thijs De Ridder shut down Caleb Wilson. I don’t remember Wilson’s first bucket, but then I started paying attention, and Wilson did not score, or even draw a foul, when he was guarded by De Ridder. De Ridder’s defense has improved game-by-game since the Virginia Tech debacle.

Plus

This UNC team, like Roy Williams’ vintage teams, can rebound the ball. Wilson averages 10.4 boards a game while Henri Veesaar averages 9.2. Virginia still pounded them on the boards, outrebounding the Heels 44 – 28 with a 16 – 8 advantage on the offensive glass. Of course, those numbers were better in the first half when everything was going better for the Hoos, but they were still good in the second half even when it was clear that UNC had made defending their glass a point of emphasis.

Minus

Jacari White is not right yet, not by a long shot. He’s clearly bothered by his wrist brace. Over the last two games, he’s coughed the ball up six times in 17 total minutes. Three of those have been of the bad-left-hand-handle variety. If Virginia is going to live or die by the three, it would be nice to get some semblance of old Jacari White back.

Minus

Johan Grunloh was supposedly considered a late second-round draft pick this year and he opted to come to Grounds to improve his draft stock. I just don’t see it. I know NBA execs are all about potential, and you simply cannot teach height. Grunloh has an ugly shot, and while he’s gotten better from beyond the arc, he’s still only converting at 31.1%. He’s just not strong enough under the rim. He scored six points on seven shots and grabbed just four boards.

Next Up: Virginia travels to Notre Dame for a Tuesday night game, January 27th. Game time is 7:00pm and the game is on ESPN2.