Notre Dame vs. UNC Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for Wednesday, Jan. 21

The UNC Tar Heels have hit a slump in their season, having lost three of their last four games to the likes of SMU, Stanford, and California. If they don't improve in a hurry, they're going to find themselves out of the AP Poll and struggling to hang on to a potential berth in the NCAA Tournament.

Thankfully for them, they'll face a Notre Dame team on Wednesday night that has been struggling even more, sporting a 1-4 record in ACC play.

Let's dive into the odds and my best bet for this ACC showdown.

Notre Dame vs. UNC Odds, Spread, and Total

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

Spread

Notre Dame +12.5 (-105)
UNC -12.5 (-115)

Moneyline

Notre Dame +600
UNC -900

Total

OVER 148.5 (-110)
UNDER 148.5 (-110)

Notre Dame vs. UNC How to Watch

Date: Wednesday, January 21
Game Time: 7:00 pm ET
Venue: Dean E. Smith Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN2
Notre Dame Record: 10-8 (1-4 in ACC)
UNC Record: 14-4 (2-3 in ACC)

Notre Dame vs. UNC Betting Trends

Notre Dame is 2-4 ATS in its last six games
The OVER is 8-2 in Notre Dame's last 10 games
Notre Dame has lost five straight games to UNC
Notre Dame is 5-1 ATS in its last six road games
UNC is 1-4 ATS in its last five games
UNC has won 11 straight home games

Notre Dame vs. UNC Key Player to Watch

Caleb Wilson, F - UNC Tar Heels

Caleb Wilson leads the UNC Tar Heels in both points per game with 19.7 and rebounds per game with 10.6, averaging a double-double per game, while also averaging 1.4 blocks, 2.7 assists, and 1.6 steals. He can change the game on both sides of the court, but despite strong play, has not been able to lead UNC to wins against inferior opponents lately. The Tar Heels need to find a way to support Wilson better.

Notre Dame vs. UNC Prediction and Pick

Despite the differences in record and the bad start to Notre Dame's conference schedule, I think the gap between these two teams is a lot more similar than you might expect. For example, UNC is 49th in effective field goal percentage and 34th in defensive efficiency. Notre Dame is behind them, but not by much, coming in at 110th in effective field goal percentage and 93rd in defensive efficiency.

We should also consider that Notre Dame does a fantastic job of securing defensive rebounds, ranking third in the country in defensive rebounding, which will play a big role in preventing UNC from getting many second-chance scoring opportunities.

I'm not going to argue that UNC shouldn't be favored, but is a 12.5-point spread justified? I don't think so.

Pick: Notre Dame +12.5 (-105) via BetMGM

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