These three matchups could determine Virginia's game against Florida State

In their 20 previous meetings, Virginia rarely has held an advantage in talent over Florida State. Starting with Bobby Bowden's glory days from the late 1980s through the 2000s, the Seminoles have annually produced as many four- and five-star prospects and NFL draft picks as almost any program in the country.

Under Tony Elliott, the Cavaliers have closed the gap. With a veteran roster built through the transfer portal, Virginia can line up against FSU on relatively equal terms, as last year's 44-38 double-overtime victory proved.

Saturday's matchup in Tallahassee figures to be close and compelling. Here are three matchups that could go a long way toward deciding the outcome:

1. Virginia CB Omillio Agard vs. FSU WR Duce Robinson

The Cavaliers had no answer for Robinson a year ago in Charlottesville. The 6-foot-6, 230-pound Southern Cal transfer had nine receptions for 147 yards and a touchdown, and if he hadn't bobbled a potential second TD pass, the game might have gone into a third overtime and ended differently.

Agard has said he watched that game on TV at Wisconsin, where he played last year, and that it was one of the main reasons he transferred to Virginia. He is likely to spend most (if not all) of the afternoon covering Robinson, trying to prevent a repeat performance.

He'll surely receive help from safeties Brandyn Hillman and Ethan Minter, but Agard has already proven himself as a capable cover corner, allowing just three receptions through four games. That number is likely to increase Saturday. Robinson is averaging 20.2 yards per catch on 13 receptions in 2026.

2. Virginia's receiving corps vs. FSU's secondary

Establishing the run game is paramount to Des Kitchings' normal game plan, but he can't ignore the opportunity to exploit a shockingly porous (and hobbled) FSU defensive backfield.

Four Seminole defensive backs (Karson Hobbs, Jamari Howard, Zae Thomas and Antonio Cromartie Jr.) will miss the game with injuries. That depletes a secondary that's already allowing 290 yards per game (135th in the nation) and has given up eight touchdown passes.

Rico Flores' nine-catch breakout game against Delaware came at an opportune time for Virginia. Look for Beau Pribula to target him early and often, as well as Kam Courtney, Jacquon Gibson and Da'Shawn Martin.

3. Virginia LB Kam Robinson vs. FSU RB Ousmane Kromah

Kromah, a sophomore, is averaging 6.2 yards per carry and has rushed for at least 80 yards in all four of Florida State's games this season, including 100-yard efforts against New Mexico State and SMU.
At 6-1 and 218 pounds, he's a load to bring down.

Robinson finally seems close to 100 percent in his return from ACL surgery, and he figures to be busy all afternoon. If he and the Cavaliers' defense can contain Kromah and dual-threat quarterback Ashton Daniels better than they did WVU's Michael Hawkins Jr. and Cam Cook, they have a chance to keep the Seminoles' offense in check.

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