Virginia vs. TCU Prediction, Odds, Key Player for Women's NCAA Tournament Sweet 16

The only double-digit seed left in the 2026 Women’s NCAA Tournament is the No. 10-seeded Virginia Cavaliers, who have pulled off back-to-back overtime upsets to reach the Sweet 16.

Virginia won in double overtime against No. 2 Iowa in the Round of 32, and now it has a tough test against the No. 3-seeded TCU Horned Frogs and star guard Olivia Miles on Saturday.

Miles nearly put up a triple-double in the second round in a win over Washington, and TCU has lost just five games all season, dominating in Big 12 play.

Oddsmakers have set the Horned Frogs as sizable favorites in this game, but Virginia has gone from the First Four to the Sweet 16 on a wild upset run. Does that continue this weekend?

Let’s take a look at the odds, a player to watch and my prediction for this Sweet 16 matchup.

Virginia vs. TCU Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook

Spread

Virginia +9.5 (-110)
TCU -9.5 (-110)

Moneyline

Virginia: +360
TCU: -500

Total

130.5 (Over -110/Under -110)

Virginia vs. TCU How to Watch

Date: Saturday, March 28
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Golden 1 Center
How to Watch (TV): ESPN
Virginia record: 22-11
TCU record: 31-5

Virginia vs. TCU Key Player to Watch

Kymora Johnson, Guard, Virginia

Junior guard Kymora Johnson has been amazing in the NCAA Tournament, scoring 17 points against Arizona State in the First Four, 28 points against Georgia in the first round and 28 points against Iowa in the second round.

The star guard is averaging 19.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.8 assists per game this season while shooting 41.3 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from beyond the arc.

Virginia vs. TCU Prediction and Pick

Virginia had the benefit of being in the First Four, so no team was able to have a full week to prepare for the Cavaliers early on in the NCAA Tournament.

That won’t be the case on Saturday night, as TCU will have a full week of preparation to get ready for the only double-digit seed left in the tourney. However, Virginia likely needed some rest after back-to-back overtime games in the first and second round.

While the Cavaliers are not the better team – they rank 38th in Bart Torvik’s latest rankings – I don’t think they should be almost double-digit underdogs.

TCU needed overtime to get past No. 6 Washington in the second round, scoring just 62 points despite a near triple-double from Olivia Miles.

TCU has the No. 1 defense in terms of opponent 2-point percentage and overall effective field goal percentage, but it does come in at No. 24 in adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Cavaliers are playing with house money at this point, and they have a pretty solid 2-point defense as well, ranking 15th in opponent 2-point percentage.

I think the UNDER is the best bet to place, as there is a chance for an offensive letdown from Virginia, and TCU combined for 126 and 121 points in the first two rounds. If this game ends up being close, it’ll still be a low-scoring one since both teams are outside the top-200 in adjusted tempo this season.

Pick: UNDER 130.5 (-110 at FanDuel)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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