UVA Baseball a No. 3 Seed in D1Baseball Midseason Tournament Projections

Virginia Athletics

We've reached the midway point of the college baseball season and while there is plenty of baseball left to be played, the picture is starting to form for what the NCAA Tournament will look like in June. After two months of inconsistent and oftentimes simply poor play, Virginia has won its last four games, including a three-game sweep over then-No. 20 Stanford last weekend. The Cavaliers are now 16-11 overall and 6-6 in ACC play and, thanks largely to their recent improved play, were included in D1Baseball.com's Midseason NCAA Tournament projections.

Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers, and Aaron Fitt unveiled their Midseason Field of 64 this week and projected Virginia to be a No. 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament. In other words, the Cavaliers would be in the tournament if it started today, but not by much. D1Baseball has UVA headed to the Phoenix Regional hosted by No. 13 overall seed Arizona State. The other teams in the region are Cal Poly (No. 2 seed) and Nevada (No. 4 seed).

Virginia is one of 11 teams from the Atlantic Coast Conference currently projected to be in the NCAA Tournament, tied with the SEC for the most bids by any conference. Three ACC teams are projected to host regionals as top 16 seeds and two of them would host Super Regionals as well as top 8 national seeds: No. 4 Clemson, No. 5 Florida State, and No. 10 North Carolina.

Virginia currently has an RPI of 81, much lower than usual at this point in the season, but 10 spots higher than the Hoos were last week. The good news for UVA is that the rest of the regular season presents significant resume-building opportunities in the ACC against NC State (RPI 55), Pittsburgh (RPI 47), Florida State (RPI 10), Georgia Tech (RPI 17), Miami (RPI 79), and Virginia Tech (RPI 41). If the Cavaliers can win three or four of those remaining ACC series, that will secure their at-large bid and strengthen their case for a higher seed line in the NCAA Tournament.

At this point, it would take a major hot streak in order for Virginia to move itself back into position to host a regional at the NCAA Tournament. The Cavaliers hosted regionals and super regionals in each of the last two seasons and that home field advantage at Disharoon Park was a major factor in their runs to the 2023 and 2024 College World Series. Virginia will need major boosts to its resume to make that happen again.

Then there's the ACC Tournament and its new single-elimination bracket format. All 16 teams will make the tournament, so that's not a concern, but the top eight seeds earn a first-round bye, and the top four seeds earn a double-bye into the quarterfinals. If the season ended today, Virginia would have the No. 10 seed in the ACC Tournament, so no bye. With remaining series against four teams above them in the standings, the Cavaliers could still rise significantly in the standings if they continue their recent improved play.

Up next, Virginia (16-11, 6-6 ACC) will visit NC State (19-10, 5-4 ACC) for a three-game series in Raleigh this weekend. Game 1 from Doak Field is set for 6pm ET on Friday, with game 2 following on Saturday at 3pm, and the series finale starting at 3pm on Sunday. Games 1 and 2 will be streamed on ACC Network Extra while game 3 will be televised on the ACC Network.