What does FPI say about Virginia’s chances against West Virginia?

ESPN predicts another Cavaliers win, but what are the chances of victory?

Sep 11, 2026; Charlottesville, Virginia, USA; Virginia Cavaliers tight end Hayden Rollison (94) celebrates after scoring a touchdown during the fourth quarter against the Norfolk State Spartans at Scott Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Amber Searls-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Virginia has not started a season 3-0 since 2019. ESPN’s Football Power Index predicts the Cavaliers will achieve that undefeated start for the first time in the Coach Tony Elliott area.

For each game, FPI is generated based on analytical trends focused on team strength and future projected performance. The 2026 FPI views Virginia well — it projects the Cavaliers to produce an 11-1 season.

This week, the FPI projection has Virginia listed with an 84.1% chance of victory in its Saturday night contest with West Virginia.

That number is a large one, especially because West Virginia is a 2-0 team from the Big 12. However, its body of work is unimpressive — it eked out a win against Coastal Carolina and then crushed UT Martin.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers destroyed a talented ACC team before blasting Norfolk State. Virginia is also coming off of a stellar 2025 campaign, whereas the Mountaineers were one of the worst teams in the Big 12 last year.

Dec 6, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Virginia Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott greets players during the second half against the Duke Blue Devils during the 2025 ACC Championship game at Bank of America Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jim Dedmon-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Against NC State, Virginia was given a 68% chance to win. The Cavaliers won 34-8. Against Norfolk State, there was a 99% chance of victory and Virginia won 59-3.

FPI is not an end-all, be-all metric. The Mountaineers were given an 85.8% chance to beat Coastal Carolina but ultimately won by a single score. West Virginia's close call may have influenced its incredibly minimal chance of beating Virginia.

How will the matchup play out?

The Cavaliers are facing what has been an elite rushing team thus far into the 2026 season. The Mountaineers have yet to impress defensively — Virginia's offense might breeze past them — but West Virginia's offense gives it a chance to compete.

Quarterback Michael Hawkins Jr., a dual-threat quarterback, can put the offense on his shoulders and buy extra time to create positive plays. He is a threat to run the ball himself, not too dissimilar from Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey. The Cavaliers excelled at keeping Bailey in the pocket, and will aim to do the same against Hawkins.

Hawkins is new to Morgantown, W.Va., previously spending time with Oklahoma behind captain quarterback John Mateer. In his time as a starter, Hawkins has yet to face a team as experienced and talented as Virginia.

Conversely, Cavaliers quarterback Beau Pribula has faced a bevy of SEC teams and is one of dozens of graduate starters on the most experienced roster of any Power Four team.