Virginia’s week three FPI Virginia forecast: College Football Playoff?

At the start of week three, ESPN’s Football Power Index has Virginia going 11-1 — a record which could possibly be enough to lead to Virginia’s first College Football Playoff appearance. Here are the updated numbers for the Cavaliers in each matchup.

West Virginia — 84.1% chance of victory (Previous 84.9%)

The Cavaliers are still heavy favorites in Charlotte, but the numbers shifted slightly towards Mountaineers after their offense put together back-to-back quality outings. However, West Virginia’s defense was well below average at home against Coastal Carolina.

Delaware — 90.6% chance of victory (Prev. 89.9%)

Even though the Blue Hens almost upset the SEC’s Vanderbilt on the road, Delaware’s chance of victory decreased this week. Virginia could see a lot more fight from its mid-major guest than initially expected.

At Florida State — 57.4% chance of victory (Prev. 53.9%)

The Seminoles are in trouble. In week one, their defense allowed New Mexico State to stick around far longer than expected. Last time out, Florida State benefited from four SMU turnovers yet still lost at home. This is looking like less of a difficult road game with each passing week.

Syracuse — 84.5% chance of victory (Prev. 77.3%)

In their first ACC matchup, the Orange struggled to generate offense against Cal. Syracuse has to prove itself if it is to emerge from the ACC’s below-average tier.

At No. 16 SMU — 34.0% chance of victory (Prev. 34.6%)

The Mustangs coughed up four turnovers and still won at Florida State. That is certainly impressive — but against a team like Virginia, four turnovers will almost certainly result in a loss.

Duke — 72.7% chance of victory (Prev. 73.6%)

Initially expected to be a Virginia win, this game is now more interesting. The Blue Devils won a game against Illinois of the Big Ten. This is a high-floor Duke team with the ability to compete with any team.

@ Wake Forest — 65.9% chance of victory (Prev. 62.5)

Defense is highly suspect — that is a theme that applies to many ACC teams. This is one of them, although Wake Forest did beat Purdue, a Big Ten team. The Demon Deacons will be interesting to watch moving forward.

California — 90.8% of victory

No change, the Cavaliers are still favored by nearly 91%. The Golden Bears looked lost against UCLA before picking up a close win at Syracuse — there is still much to learn about this team.

North Carolina — 73.4% chance of victory (Prev. 69.8)

A substantial increase. There may still be questions about North Carolina’s offense. The Tar Heels only won by 32 against a vastly inferior opponent.

At Virginia Tech — 51.1% chance of victory (Prev. 49.4)

This is the most interesting development. This was always close to a 50-50 tossup, but now, Virginia is favored to pick up its first win in Blacksburg, Va. this century.

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