Virginia Tech Men's Basketball Stock Report After First Four ACC Contests of 2025-26

The Hokies are 2-2 through a quartet of conference clashes.

Jan 10, 2026; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech guard Jailen Bedford (0) shoots a shot. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

Through four ACC games, Virginia Tech men's basketball has split its conference slate, bookending consecutive losses to Wake Forest and Stanford with a triple-overtime victory over Virginia on New Year's Eve and a comeback victory over Cal two days ago.

𝐻𝒪𝑀𝐸 🏰🙌 pic.twitter.com/PGndi70qYf

— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) January 11, 2026

The Hokies (13-4, 2-2 ACC) now enter a difficult road test over in Dallas, Texas against No. 24 SMU on Jan. 14, before returning home to play Notre Dame on Jan. 17 and then going to Syracuse, New York on Jan. 21 to play Syracuse. In Virginia Tech's opening six-game ACC slate, spanning up until its contest against the Fighting Irish, starting that six-game slate at 3-3 is paramount. At the tail end of January, Virginia Tech will square off against two schools in the upper echelon of the ACC: No. 20 Louisville on Jan. 24 and No. 6 Duke on Jan. 31.

Virginia Tech claiming its next contest against SMU isn't expected, but it would be a welcome boost should the Hokies pull it off. The Notre Dame game is more important in terms of not losing, due to it being a team more near the caliber of Virginia Tech. This year, Virginia Tech is 10-1 at home (Notre Dame will play the Hokies in Blacksburg), while it's split its two road games (Virginia Tech won vs. South Carolina and lost vs. Wake Forest; it plays SMU in Dallas). Given that the Fighting Irish would represent a Quad 2 loss at home while the Mustangs would be a Quad 1

Overall, the stock of Virginia Tech is a vacillating one as of now, with the team's NCAA Tournament hopes hanging on its game-to-game performances. There is a good chance that Virginia Tech cracks the 68-team field for the first time since 2022, and presumably the first time via an at-large bid since 2021. There's also a good chance that it misses the tournament for the fourth straight season. Both are reasonable propositions, and I'd place the probability of Virginia Tech making the NCAA Tournament at or around 50%.

For Virginia Tech to win this weekend against SMU, the Hokies' three-headed Hydra of bigs — Tobi Lawal, Amani Hansberry and Christian Gurdak — need to stay out of foul trouble. Hansberry and Gurdak both accrued three fouls by the end of the first half against Wake Forest and against SMU, they'll need to stay out of foul trouble to avoid stretching the Hokies' frontcourt depth thinner than it already is.

That, and wing Neoklis Avdalas will be a focal point of the Wednesday tilt. How Avdalas responds to a potent SMU team, and whether he can function as the primary option, likely determines the outcome. Virginia Tech has won with Avdalas being the second or third option on the floor, as it did against Virginia. However, if Avdalas can step up against the Mustangs, and produce roughly 75-80% of his Providence performance, the Hokies' slim chances against SMU will see a large boost.

So, is the stock trending up or down? I'd say up, but that the up is a small upward arrow, in this case. California was a thriller that was another down-to-the-wire contest, but for Virginia Tech to claim a tournament bid, it'll need to continue coming out with almost all of those with wins or claim an emphatic victory. The Hokies haven't had a game that was decided by more than a possession in regulation since Dec. 14. Either Tech's luck needs to continue, or it needs to render some of its upcoming games not close. The Hokies are facing a plethora of 50/50 games on their schedule, with the majority of the ACC closely bunched together this year. Virginia Tech needs to be on the right side of as many of those 50/50 games as possible.

The Hokies will next take on No. 24 SMU on Wednesday, Jan. 14. The contest will tip off at 9 p.m. ET and will be available for viewing on ESPNU.