Virginia Tech's Stock Report After 67-66 Loss to Miami

Virginia Tech men's basketball suffered another heartbreaking and deflating loss Tuesday evening. The Hokies sustained a 67-66 loss, ceding a go-ahead free-throw to Miami guard Tre Donaldson — who poured in a career-high 32 points against Virginia Tech.

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— Virginia Tech Men's Basketball (@HokiesMBB) February 18, 2026

It's hard to view any context in which Virginia Tech possessed a serious chance to win and led for 22 minutes to Miami's 11 as a positive; yet, by the metrics, the day ended up as a net positive.

Virginia Tech rose two spots in the NET from No. 58 to No. 56, while also seeing a four-place elevation in KenPom from No. 65 to No. 61.

Still, the opportunity feels like one that slipped away, especially considering what was at stake. Virginia Tech entered the night with three Quadrant 1 victories already on its resume, a strong foundation for postseason positioning, albeit one affected by the Hokies' Quadrant 3 loss to Florida State.

A win in last night’s matchup would have added a fourth, further strengthening its profile and pushing Virginia Tech closer to the bubble after being the sixth team out entering Tuesday's tilt. Instead, the Hokies were left to wonder what might have been.

I think that Virginia Tech's stock is dropping downward; that's not just down to the fact that it's now dropped four of its last five, with its lone triumph being its 76-66 upset road win over then-No. 20 Clemson on Feb. 11. Moreover, the Hokies are 2-5 in league play on the road.

Questioning whether Virginia Tech's stock is going down — I consider the stock to be a mixture of the team's performance and its future — comes down to whether the final four-game slate is viewed through a glass-half-empty or a glass-half-full option.

First, the glass-half-empty take: Virginia Tech is 5-34 all-time against the Tar Heels on the road and is 1-9 at the Dean E. Smith Center. On the road against Virginia, the Hokies are 5-13 all-time at John Paul Jones Arena. Virginia Tech is 1-6 against Boston College under head coach Mike Young. As for Wake Forest, the Hokies have lost five of their last six to the Demon Deacons.

Combining all those statistics paints a sharp picture that lends credence to Virginia Tech potentially going 0-4 in league play if the worst-case scenario comes to light.

Then, there's the glass-half-full take: Virginia Tech beat Virginia 95-85 on Dec. 31 down three of its top eight options and managing a mid-game injury to wing Neoklis Avdalas. The Hokies lost to Wake Forest down three when they were down those three options and managing a more hobbled Avdalas. The Demon Deacons lost seven of their next eight before bouncing back with back-to-back victories over Georgia Tech and Stanford.

As for North Carolina, the Tar Heels may be operating shorthanded for Feb. 28's showdown, depending on the status of star freshman forward Caleb Wilson. In 24 games this year, the forward has averaged 19.8 points (No. 36 in D-I) and 9.4 rebounds per game (No. 26) on 57.8% shooting (T-No. 40).

For Boston College, Conte Forum has proven to be a kryptonite of sorts for Virginia Tech; fortunately, for the Hokies, they've gone an even 9-9 at Cassell Coliseum all-time against the Eagles. Under Young, they're 1-2 against the Eagles at home, with a win in 2023-24 and losses in 2022-23 and 2019-20.

As with many such instances, I think that the true answer lies somewhere in the middle, and that middle is likely to leave the Hokies out of the NCAA Tournament this year.

Virginia Tech plays against Wake Forest next; the Hokies will face off against the Demon Deacons at 12 p.m. ET on Saturday, Feb. 21. Coverage for the contest will be on the ACC Network.

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