Virginia Tech's Upset Chances vs. Oregon: A Potential Path to Victory?

Eight- vs. nine-seed matchups in the NCAA Tournament are usually undesired by the lower seed. That's not because of the first-round matchup itself — usually, it's the most balanced draw a lower seed can receive — but because of what awaits the next round after.

#Hokies are dancing down to Texas! 🏀 pic.twitter.com/YExLBmgkkL
— Virginia Tech Women's Basketball (@HokiesWBB) March 16, 2026

For Virginia Tech, that feeling persists. The Hokies draw Oregon in the opening round, a team that profiles similarly to them in both size and resume.

So, what are my thoughts on Virginia Tech's first-round draw?

I think it's a better draw for the Hokies than a matchup such as Iowa State. There, Virginia Tech would have had to face 6-foot-3 big Audi Crooks, who has averaged 25.5 points and 7.8 rebounds per contest this season.

Though the Cyclones are closer on BartTorvik overall to Virginia Tech than Oregon is (Oregon: No. 28; ISU: No. 34; Virginia Tech: No. 37), Iowa State also sports the ninth-highest adjusted offensive rating in the country. Its effective field goal percentage mark of 54.7% sits sixth-highest in the nation.

Moreover, the Cyclones are pinpoint from inside and outside the arc. Per Torvik, Iowa State currently holds the seventh-best two-point shooting mark in the nation (54.7%) and the 12th-best three-point shooting mark (36.5%). In comparison, the Ducks rank a solid 47th and 51st, respectively.

Given that, Virginia Tech earned a good draw against a more manageable offense. Oregon's adjusted offensive efficiency mark sits at No. 38 on Torvik's metrics, 15 spots ahead of the Hokies (No. 53).

Where Virginia Tech excels is in two-point shooting defense. Its own allowed two-point shooting clip stands at an imposing 40.6%, 19th-best in Division I. In contrast, Oregon's 47.1% mark sits at No. 252. If the Hokies can continue their strong surge in defense inside the arc, they could be in a solid position to advance to the Round of 32.

With all that information in mind, Virginia Tech is an underdog, but not by an overwhelming or disconcerting amount. At the time of writing, the Hokies are 3.5-point pups on ESPNBET.

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Virginia Tech's effort this year has been admirable; the Hokies, after being the first team out of last year's NCAA Tournament, bounced back and improved their win total by five (three in ACC play). Though their nine-seed standing will presumably force them into a second-round matchup with top-seeded Texas, Virginia Tech avoids playing two elite eighth-seeded offenses.

In addition to Iowa State, Oklahoma State — one of the two other eight-seeded teams alongside the Cyclones and Ducks — ranks No. 23 and No. 16 in adjusted offensive efficiency and effective field goal percentage. The Cowgirls will instead be playing Princeton on Saturday.

The Hokies contest Oregon on Friday, March 20 at 1:30 p.m. ET, with viewing for the contest available on ESPN2.