Bowl Projections For Virginia Tech Football After Week 4 Win Over Boston College

Virginia Tech won Saturday and got bumped out of the Gator Bowl anyway. CBS Sports' Brad Crawford handed the Hokies' spot in Jacksonville to Pittsburgh, and Pitt plays at Lane Stadium on Friday night.

Crawford is the outlier. Three of the other four national projections moved the Hokies up after they beat Boston College 21-14 in a nor'easter to go 4-0 for the first time since 2017. They also drew 86 points in Sunday's AP poll, fifth among teams receiving votes and up from 46 a week ago.

Where the board sits

Sports Illustrated's Bryan Fischer moved Virginia Tech up from the Holiday Bowl to the Pop-Tarts Bowl in Orlando on Dec. 29, against Oklahoma State. ESPN's Mark Schlabach made the same jump from the Pinstripe, with Houston as the opponent.

His colleague Kyle Bonagura moved the Hokies from the Sun Bowl to the Holiday Bowl in San Diego on Dec. 28 against UCLA. Athlon's Steven Lassan kept them in Charlotte for the Duke's Mayo Bowl on Dec. 26 and swapped the opponent from Iowa to Wisconsin.

Crawford went from the Gator to the Fenway Bowl in Boston on Dec. 26 against Florida Atlantic.

Three up, one steady, one down, all off the same afternoon.

My pick a week ago was the Gator Bowl.

What Saturday actually told us

Virginia Tech had six points with 11 minutes left. Boston College quarterback Mason McKenzie had just scored his second rushing touchdown to put the Eagles up 14-6.

Then the Hokies scored 15 points in 3:07. Ethan Grunkemeyer found Marlion Jackson for a 14-yard touchdown, and Jeffrey Overton Jr. ran in the 2-point conversion to tie it with 8:05 left. After a Boston College punt, Overton took the next snap 76 yards down the right sideline. The drive lasted 12 seconds.

Overton finished with 209 yards on 25 carries. Grunkemeyer's run of 300-yard games stopped at two, but he went 22 of 35 for 147 yards and a touchdown in wind that gusted to 40 mph, and he still hasn't thrown an interception this season.

The rest of the schedule moved, too. Clemson won at Cal 24-10 to go 2-0 in league play, and Georgia Tech lost at Stanford 34-27 to fall to 1-3. SMU trailed Missouri State 10-0 before winning 34-24 and still moved up to No. 21. Pitt beat Bucknell 59-0. Virginia took care of Delaware 42-3.

Record prediction: 9-3

Saturday doesn't change the count. Boston College was one of the four safe wins on the original path, and it's banked, even if it didn't look safe well into the fourth quarter.

The path I have still runs through Cal on Oct. 10, Georgia Tech on Oct. 17, Stanford on Nov. 14 and Virginia on Nov. 28. Cal and Georgia Tech both lost on Saturday. Stanford's win over Georgia Tech makes Nov. 14 a little less automatic than it looked in August, but the Hokies should still win regardless.

That's eight wins. The ninth still has to come from Pitt on Friday, Clemson on Oct. 24 or SMU on Nov. 6. Pitt is 4-0. Clemson is unbeaten in the league. SMU is ranked. Go 0-3 in those, add a loss at No. 4 Miami, and this is an 8-4 team.

My bowl projection: Gator Bowl

Holding, and it happens to be the middle of the board. Two projections have the Hokies ahead of it in the ACC's pecking order. Three have them behind it in San Diego, Charlotte and Boston. I'm not jumping to Orlando off a win that needed 15 points in three minutes against a 2-2 team. The record path didn't move, so the pick doesn't either.

Who's in the way did change. Louisville, still in Orlando on two of the five boards, lost to Wake Forest 30-27 at home for its second loss. AP voters have Duke ahead of the Hokies at 101 points and Pitt behind at 52. Virginia Tech never plays Duke, so that comparison comes down to record.

Pitt is different. Win Friday and the Hokies own the head-to-head with the team Crawford just put in Jacksonville.

The pick: Gator Bowl, Dec. 30. Ceiling at 10-2 is the Pop-Tarts Bowl. Floor at 7-5 is the Pinstripe or the Fenway.

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