Updated Game-By-Game Projections for Virginia Tech After 35-26 Victory over Maryland

Virginia Tech improved to 3-0 with a 35-26 victory over Maryland last Saturday, giving the Hokies their first 3-0 start since 2017 and snapping a 15-game losing streak against Power Four nonconference opponents. With the first quarter of the regular season complete, the remaining schedule also looks increasingly favorable.

Here is how ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) projects each of Virginia Tech's remaining nine games.

Game 4, at Boston College: 86.4% win probability

Virginia Tech opens ACC play with its second consecutive road game, traveling to Chestnut Hill for a noon matchup with Boston College. The Eagles are 2-1, rebounding from a season-opening loss to Cincinnati with victories over Rutgers and Maine. Virginia Tech enters as the considerably stronger team according to FPI, which gives the Hokies their second-highest remaining win probability only behind Stanford.

FPI record: 4-0 (1-0 ACC)

Game 5, vs. Pitt: 54.0% win probability

Virginia Tech returns to Lane Stadium for the first time since beating Old Dominion, but FPI gives the Hokies only a slight edge against Pitt. The Panthers represent Virginia Tech's narrowest projected victory among its remaining games. Pitt is 3-0, though Mason Heintschel hasn't thrown for a touchdown since his seven-touchdown explosion against Miami (OH).

FPI record: 5-0 (2-0 ACC)

Game 6, at Cal: 75.2% win probability

Virginia Tech's first cross-country trip of the season comes with a relatively favorable projection. FPI makes Virginia Tech a substantial favorite despite having to travel to Berkeley. Cal (2-1, 1-0 ACC) lost its opener to UCLA 45-24 but bounced back with a tight 21-18 victory over Syracuse. The Golden Bears then thrashed Wagner 49-7 with quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele amassing 413 passing yards.

FPI record: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)

Game 7, vs. Georgia Tech: 80.8% win probability

The Hokies return home with another projection comfortably in their favor. Virginia Tech's 80.8% win probability against Georgia Tech is its third-highest remaining mark, trailing only Stanford and Boston College. Georgia Tech is 1-2 with its lone win being a 44-11 beatdown of Mercer. The Yellow Jackets opened the season with a 14-13 loss to Colorado and were then handled by then-No. 18 Tennessee 45-24.

FPI record: 7-0 (4-0 ACC)

Game 8, at Clemson: 60.5% win probability

Perhaps no shift in projection illustrates how much Virginia Tech's outlook has changed more than this one. A trip to Clemson would ordinarily appear among the most daunting games on the schedule — Virginia Tech hasn't beaten Clemson on the road since 2007 — but FPI currently gives Virginia Tech a 60.5% chance of leaving with a victory. It isn't overwhelming, but following the model strictly would push the Hokies to 8-0. After being thrashed by then-No. 11 LSU 51-10 to open its season, Clemson outlasted Georgia Southern 22-7 and followed it up with a 28-20 comeback victory over North Carolina.

FPI record: 8-0 (5-0 ACC)

Game 9, at SMU: 43.0% win probability

If Virginia Tech follows FPI's projections through its first eight games, Dallas would be where the unbeaten run ends. The Mustangs are one of only two remaining opponents FPI favors over Virginia Tech. Still, that number leaves considerably more room for an upset than Virginia Tech's other projected loss. SMU slid past Florida State to open the season 27-24 and handled UC Davis 56-10 before falling to then-No. 23 Louisville 41-31 on the road.

FPI record: 8-1 (5-1 ACC)

Game 10, vs. Stanford: 94.4% win probability

No remaining game is projected more favorably for Virginia Tech. Following the model strictly, Virginia Tech would rebound immediately from its first loss and secure its ninth victory. After a 37-27 season-opening win over Hawaii, Stanford was handled by both then-No. 7 Miami (45-6) and Duke (35-7) to place it at 1-2 entering its Sept. 26 bout with Georgia Tech.

FPI record: 9-1 (6-1 ACC)

Game 11, at Miami: 13.7% win probability

Virginia Tech has just a 13.7% chance of beating Miami on the road, more than 29 percentage points below its chances against any other remaining opponent. FPI views this matchup considerably differently from the rest. Miami's on a roll right now, having outscored its three opponents 155-33.

The Hurricanes rolled over Stanford 45-6 before stampeding Florida A&M 77-7. A 33-20 victory over Wake Forest followed in a contest where wide receiver Malachi Toney, running back Mark Fletcher, and defensive lineman Ahmad Moten were limited. Running back CharMar Brown and wide receiver Joshua Moore are out for the season, per Hurricanes head coach Mario Cristobal.

FPI record: 9-2 (6-2 ACC)

Game 12, vs. Virginia: 63.0% win probability

Virginia Tech's chances of reclaiming the Commonwealth Cup took a noticeable uptick following Virginia's 38-27 loss to West Virginia in Charlotte, N.C.

FPI now gives the Hokies a 63% chance of beating Virginia at Lane Stadium, a considerably more comfortable projection than the near toss-up entering the season. Following the model, Virginia Tech would finish James Franklin's first regular season with double-digit victories. Virginia opened its season with a 34-8 beatdown of NC State before handling Norfolk State 59-3. In the 11-point loss to the Mountaineers, Virginia quarterback Beau Pribula threw for 197 yards and two touchdowns on 21-of-33 passing.

FPI record: Virginia Tech wins (10-2)

Bottom Line

Would a 10-2 record with two conference losses be enough to put the Hokies in the conference championship game? Likely not, since one of the losses is to SMU, but it would be the best season in quite some time and give James Franklin a lot of momentum to continue building the program.

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