Miami vs. Clemson Prediction, Odds and Key Players to Watch for College Football Week 5

Darian Mensah and the Miami Hurricanes remain undefeated this season heading into a key Week 5 matchup with the Clemson Tigers.

This usually would be a massive ACC showdown, but Clemson (3-1) remains out of the top-25 after it was blown out in Week 1 by LSU.

Christopher Vizzina is out at quarterback for the Tigers and freshman Tait Reynolds is in, but it hasn’t really improved the Clemson offense, which is just 117th in the country in EPA/Play and outside the top 100 in success rate on passing plays (90th in success rate on run plays).

As a result, oddsmakers have set Miami as a double-digit favorite on the road in this ACC clash, and the Hurricanes are well on their way to an undefeated start with a matchup against Notre Dame lurking late in the regular season.

With Mensah leading the way, Miami is poised to not only win the ACC, but it should advance to the College Football Playoff if it avoids a major upset.

The No. 4 team in the country is one of my favorite bets of the week, but let’s break down this game with the odds and a player to watch before we get to my best bet.

Miami vs. Clemson Odds, Spread and Total

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

Spread

Miami -17.5 (-102)
Clemson +17.5 (-118)

Moneyline

Miami: -900
Clemson: +600

Total

49.5 (Over -118/Under -102)

Miami vs. Clemson How to Watch

Date: Saturday, Oct. 3
Time: 7:30 p.m. EST
Venue: Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC)
How to Watch (TV): ABC
Miami record: 4-0
Clemson record: 3-1

Miami vs. Clemson Key Player to Watch

Darian Mensah, Quarterback, Miami Hurricanes

The Hurricanes quarterback is No. 2 in the odds to win the Heisman Trophy behind Jeremiah Smith, and he’s been terrific through four games this season.

Mensah has thrown for 1,211 yards and 14 scores (no picks) while also rushing for 52 yards and a score on nine carries. The Heisman candidate has completed an absurd 88.7 percent of his passes, which has led to some huge offensive showings for the Hurricanes.

Miami ranks 17th in EPA/Pass (just 69th in EPA/Rush), eighth in offensive success rate on pass plays (just 110th on run plays) and 21st in third/fourth down success rate. I expect that the Hurricanes will rely heavily on Mensah’s arm in this matchup.

Miami vs. Clemson Prediction and Pick

Clemson gave up 51 points to LSU in Week 1 and lost by 41 points, but it has rebuilt its case in the ACC with wins over Georgia Southern, North Carolina and Cal.

None of those wins came by more than 15 points, and the Tigers are relying heavily on their defense, which ranks 25th in the country in EPA/Play.

The problem is the offense is 117th in EPA/Play and 102nd in success rate. The Clemson passing offense is awful, ranking 133rd in EPA/Pass while Tait Reynolds has thrown more interceptions (two) than touchdowns (one).

Miami hasn’t played anyone to open the season, but the win over Wake Forest looks a lot better after the Demon Deacons upset a ranked Louisville team in Week 4. Miami is 3-1 against the spread, and it ranks 24th in EPA/Play on offense and 37th in EPA/Play on defense.

I’m not drinking the Clemson Kool-Aid after a few wins against lesser teams.

This squad was completely outclassed against LSU in Week 1, and Mensah and the Hurricanes have the offense that could put this game out of reach in a hurry.

Since Clemson has no real passing game to compete with the top teams, I’ll take Miami to cover any number inside 21.

Pick: Miami -17.5 (-102 at DraftKings)

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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