What Does ESPN's FPI Predict For Every Game Left on Virginia Tech's 2025 Schedule?
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ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 2. Virginia Tech now ranks No. 37 on the index with a total score of 7.2 and a projected win-loss record of 7.0-5.1. The Hokies' odds of winning the ACC championship are now 5.2%, while their odds of making the College Football Playoff (CFP) and the National Championship game are now 5.1% and 0.1%, respectively. Tech's Week 1 loss came to South Carolina, who was ranked No. 11 on ESPN's FPI entering the season.
NEW: Updated ESPN FPI ahead of the 2025 College Football Season📈📉https://t.co/NBgsrOqFbp pic.twitter.com/OkmLVu8yZQ
— On3 (@On3sports) August 16, 2025
Game 2, vs. Vanderbilt - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 63.3% chance to win (down 3.8%)
After the Hokies (0-1) lost their season opener to the Commodores, their win probability has slightly dipped by around 4%. However, Tech still possesses a noticeable lead in terms of probability and is firmly in the hunt to avenge last year's season-opening defeat.
FPI Record: 1-1
Game 3, vs. Old Dominion - FPI gives Virginia Tech an 83.0% chance to win (down 2.5%)
Despite Monarchs signal-caller Colton Joseph struggling against then-No. 20 Indiana, Old Dominion's odds against Tech have improved by 2.5%. Joseph tallied just 96 passing yards, throwing no touchdowns and a trio of interceptions. The Hokies are still heavily favored, however, and should, at minimum, be 1-2 after their contest against the Monarchs.
FPI Record: 2-1
Game 4, vs. Wofford - FPI gives Virginia Tech 98.9% chance to win (down 0.1%)
Ditto for Wofford. The change here is almost negligible.
FPI Record: 3-1
Game 5, at NC State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 60.9% chance to win (down 1.8%)
After three straight home contests, the Hokies travel to Raleigh to face the NC State Wolfpack. This past weekend, the Wolfpack (1-0) narrowly defeated East Carolina, 24-17, stuffing the Pirates on a fourth-and-1 to clinch the victory. Other metrics, such as the KFord Ratings, have this game more as a 50/50 or slightly towards NC State, but going off FPI only, the Hokies claim their fourth straight victory.
FPI Record: 4-1, 1-0 ACC
Game 6 vs. Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia Tech an 89.2% chance to win (up 2%)
This is the only contest of the 2025 slate where the FPI's odds of victory for Virginia Tech have increased. The main culprit? Wake Forest barely hung on to beat Kennesaw State, 10-9. Barring surprises, the Demon Deacons will likely once again be near the bottom of the ACC.
FPI Record: 5-1, 2-0 ACC
Game 7, at Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 36.1% chance to win (down 8.1%)
This game is the fourth-highest drop week-to-week for the Hokies; the Yellow Jackets captured an opening-week victory over Colorado, 27-20. Georgia Tech has cemented itself as one to watch in the ACC this season and potentially is a squad that could make the ACC championship game if things break right. The Hokies' five-game streak is snapped here.
FPI Record: 5-2, 2-1 ACC
Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 77.9% chance to win (down 6.8%)
Tech returns home for a matchup that appears manageable on paper. Although Cal isn’t expected to be a powerhouse this season, they’re not without intrigue.
The Bears will likely start true freshman Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele, a highly touted recruit from Hawaii, under center. It's unlikely to result in a victory for Cal, but perhaps in a year or two, the Golden Bears may threaten the Hokies.
FPI Record: 6-2, 3-1 ACC
Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 58.5% chance to win (down 2.6%)
Prior to the Week 2 updates, Louisville was the Hokies' fourth-hardest game. Now, it shifts down to No. 6, with Florida State and Virginia having leapfrogged it in terms of winning probability. Still, the Cardinals are not a team that the Hokies should overlook; led by South Carolina transfer Miller Moss and tailback Isaac Brown, Louisville could be a sleeper in the ACC this season.
FPI Record: 7-2, 4-1 ACC
Game 10, at Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 47.2% chance to win (down 20%)
This marks one of the most dramatic shifts from the preseason outlook — and for good reason. In Week 1, quarterback Tommy Castellanos and the Seminoles pulled off a stunning upset of then-No. 8 Alabama; the victory vaulted Florida State up to No. 14 in the latest AP Poll. As a result, what once looked like a relatively favorable matchup for the Hokies now carries far more weight, with the FPI rating the Florida State-Virginia Tech showdown as essentially a 50/50 toss-up.
FPI Record: 7-3, 4-2 ACC
Game 11, vs. Miami (36%) (down 5.2%)
After facing Florida State, Virginia Tech awaits the bonus of hosting what’s likely the toughest matchup on its entire schedule. No. 10 Miami will roll into Lane Stadium late in the season, and by that point, the stakes could be massive — not just for the Hokies’ momentum, but potentially for a spot in the ACC Championship Game for Miami. The Hurricanes are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and, given their preseason billing, they’re expected to be in the mix for the conference crown. Tech drops its second straight.
FPI Record: 7-4, 4-3 ACC
Game 12, vs. Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 49.2% chance to win (down 17.2%)
Although Virginia looked sharp in its opener, the 17.2% swing feels like an eyebrow-raiser. The FPI now gives the Cavaliers a 51% chance to win, nudging things barely in their direction. Virginia eviscerated Coastal Carolina, 48-7, to open its 2025 campaign and as a result, that recency makes the pendulum swing ever-so-slightly towards the Cavaliers.
FPI Record: 7-5, 4-4 ACC
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Thomas is a sophomore at Virginia Tech majoring in multimedia journalism with a minor in creative writing. He currently works with Collegiate Times, Virginia Tech's student-run newspaper, as a staff writer for its sports section. In addition, he also writes for 3304 Sports as a staff writer and on-air talent, as well as Aspiring Journalists at Virginia Tech as a curator. You can find him on X: @thomashughes_05.
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