Five Reasons to Doubt That Virginia Tech Can Exceed Expectations This Season

Yesterday, I wrote an article on five reasons to believe that Virginia Tech football can exceed expectations this upcoming season. Today, I'm flipping it on its head, pivoting to a more glass-half-empty take on the Hokies' hopes for the 2026 season. Here's my five reasons why Virginia Tech exceeding expectations this campaign could be placed in doubt:

No. 1: There are still lingering traces of last year's 3-9 team.

Virginia Tech finished 3-9 in 2025, averaging just 21.4 points per game, which ranked 114th nationally. Defensively, the Hokies surrendered 30.2 points per contest, good for 106th in the FBS, while being outgained by nearly 30 yards per game overall.

Those statistics highlight a roster that consistently struggled on both sides of the ball, and while the majority of that team has been phased out, the offensive line will return many of those starts from the 3-9 team.

New head coach James Franklin undoubtedly inherits more talent than a typical 3-9 program, but reversing deficiencies that significant in a single offseason is a monumental task.

No. 2: A new coaching staff does not guarantee immediate success.

Franklin's resume speaks for itself. He's won at Vanderbilt and Penn State, compiling a 128-60 record as a head coach (104-45 with the Nittany Lions). But Year 1 in a new situation rarely unfolds perfectly for any head whistle.

Installing a new offensive and defensive philosophy, introducing new terminology and changing the culture of an entire program all take time. Even Franklin has acknowledged that winning the offseason means little if it doesn't translate to Saturdays.

Virginia Tech also welcomed more than 50 newcomers between the transfer portal and recruiting class. While that influx raises the roster's ceiling, it also means developing chemistry quickly becomes one of the season's biggest challenges.

No. 3: The quarterback spot is still more projection than production.

Penn State transfer Ethan Grunkemeyer has generated plenty of optimism, and understandably so. In seven starts last season after incumbent Drew Allar suffered a season-ending ankle injury, he completed 69 percent of his passes for 1,339 yards with eight touchdowns against four interceptions.

Those are encouraging numbers, but Grunkemeyer will face an entirely different challenge in his first full year as a starter. Also, behind him, no other quarterback on Virginia Tech's roster has seen the field.

Grunkemeyer now carries the expectations of reviving an offense that ranked 114th nationally in scoring. He'll be learning new teammates while adjusting to life as the unquestioned starter rather than a complementary piece in an established program.

There's reason to believe he'll succeed. There's also reason to wonder whether expecting an immediate breakthrough is asking too much.

No. 4: The schedule won't offer many free wins.

Even if Virginia Tech improves substantially, the schedule doesn't necessarily reward incremental progress.

The Hokies still navigate an ACC slate capable of producing several ranked opponents while also facing nonconference games that leave little room for error. Virginia Tech draws Clemson, SMU and Miami — all on the road. It'll also play Virginia to close the season after the Cavaliers went 11-3 last season.

If Virginia Tech becomes a noticeably better football team but still splits toss-up games, the final record may not reflect the improvement.

No. 5: Expectations may be ahead of reality.

Perhaps the biggest obstacle isn't on the field, but expectation.

The excitement surrounding Franklin's arrival, a highly regarded transfer class and a strong group of returning starters has understandably generated optimism around Blacksburg. Virginia Tech also ranks among the national leaders in returning production entering the season.

The Hokies still need to prove they can finish drives, create explosive plays, force turnovers and consistently execute in close games. Last season showed how difficult those things can be, and expecting all of them to improve simultaneously may be overly optimistic.

Virginia Tech almost certainly won't be the same team that went 3-9 a year ago.

The question is whether that improvement is enough to exceed expectations immediately. For all the reasons to believe the Hokies can surprise this fall, there are just as many reminders that rebuilding a football program is rarely as simple as changing the man wearing the headset.

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