FPI Predicts Virginia Tech's Week 3 Matchup With Maryland

BLACKSBURG, Va. — After thrashing its first two opponents by a combined 117-24 margin, Virginia Tech football faces a significant step up in competition this week when it travels to College Park, Md., to take on Maryland.

If Virginia Tech wins Saturday's clash, it'll be the first time since the 2017 season that the Hokies have won an out-of-conference game against a Power Four opponent. That year was also the last time the Hokies started the season with three straight victories. Ahead of the Week 3 tussle, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has offered a potential glimpse into how the Virginia Tech-Maryland game could unfold.

First, here's a quick explainer on how the Football Power Index actually works.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules."

Virginia Tech holds a 58.3% chance to win Saturday's road showdown against Maryland per ESPN's FPI metric. The Hokies (2-0) have beaten their first two opponents of the year — VMI and Old Dominion — by a combined 117-24 margin. Virginia Tech's 73 points against the Keydets in its season-opener were the most points for the program in a single game since the 1995 season against Akron (77). FanDuel Sportsbook currently has Virginia Tech as 2.5-point favorites over Maryland, which is also 2-0 to open its season after victories over Hampton (62-0) and UConn (38-14).

Will Virginia Tech pull off the win?

Through two games, Ethan Grunkemeyer has completed 48 of his 62 passes for four scores, while Malik Washington is 53-of-72 for 533 yards and three scores. On the rushing side of things, Virginia Tech's Jeffrey Overton Jr. has accumulated 151 rushing yards and a pair of scores on 23 carries, while fifth-year tailback Marcellous Hawkins has reached the end zone four times. Maryland running back Iverson Howards has notched 121 rushing yards and three touchdowns across 26 carries.

Tight end Luke Reynolds currently leads Virginia Tech's pass-catching corps in receptions (13, tied with WR Que'Sean Brown) and receiving yards (158); Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding, a transfer from Old Dominion, leads Maryland with 187 yards on 14 receptions. He totaled 667 receiving yards and six scores on 51 catches last year for the Monarchs.

On the defensive side of the ball, Virginia Tech has accumulated 12 sacks and 32 tackles for loss through two games. Penn State transfer Mylachi Williams has led that charge with six tackles for loss, three sacks, and two forced fumbles, while Cortez Harris has matched Williams for the team lead with three sacks, along with 3.5 tackles for loss.

Linebacker Kaleb Spencer has added 3.5 tackles for loss, while Aycen Stevens has joined Williams with two forced fumbles. The Hokies have also made their presence felt on special teams, blocking two kicks through their first two games.

Both teams are 2-0 against the spread thus far this season. Virginia Tech has amassed 517.5 yards per game across its first two games, good for 20th in the FBS. Its defense has conceded 196.5 yards, which currently sits No. 10. Maryland, meanwhile, ranks No. 9 in the FBS in overall offense with 560.5 yards/game, while its defense is No. 4 (154.0 yards/game).

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