Updated Game-by-Game Win Probabilities for Virginia Tech After 44-21 Win Over ODU

Virginia Tech is 2-0 after beating Old Dominion 44-21. Here's how FPI projects each of the Hokies' remaining games in 2026.

Virginia Tech Athletics

BLACKSBURG — Two games into the James Franklin era, Virginia Tech remains unbeaten.

The Hokies followed their 73-3 dismantling of VMI with a 44-21 victory over Old Dominion on Saturday, moving to 2-0 for the first time since 2021. Virginia Tech's schedule will get considerably more difficult from here, beginning with its first Power Four test of the season Saturday night at Maryland.

With two games now in the books, ESPN's Football Power Index has also shifted its outlook on the Hokies' remaining schedule. Virginia Tech is favored in seven of its final 10 games, though several matchups — including Maryland, Pitt, Clemson and Virginia — remain relatively close.

Here's an updated look at FPI's game-by-game win probabilities for Virginia Tech following its Week 2 victory over Old Dominion.

Game 3, at Maryland: 58.3% win probability

Maryland is 2-0 after victories over Hampton and UConn, but the Hokies enter College Park with some momentum of their own after outscoring VMI and Old Dominion 117-24. If the FPI holds ture, Virginia Tech starts at 3-0 for the first time since the 2017 season and claims its first non-conference Power Four victory since that same year.

FPI record: 3-0

Game 4, at Boston College: 80.9% win probability

The Hokies' second consecutive road trip comes with considerably more favorable odds. FPI gives Virginia Tech an 80.9% chance to defeat Boston College, the second-highest probability remaining on its schedule. The Eagles dropped their opener to Cincinnati 34-15 but bounced back with a 28-21 win over Rutgers the following week in BC's Red Bandanna game.

FPI record: 4-0 (1-0 ACC)

Game 5, vs. Pitt: 52.6% win probability

Last week's projection was literally a coin flip at 50.0%, and Virginia Tech has gained only a slight advantage following Week 2. At 52.6%, this remains one of the closest games on the schedule, though Week 2 was enough for FPI to narrowly lean toward the Hokies. Pitt is 2-0 like the Hokies; after Mason Heintschel threw for an ACC-record seven touchdowns in Pitt's season-opening drubbing of Miami (OH), the Panthers outlasted UCF 12-7.

FPI record: 5-0 (2-0 ACC)

Game 6, at Cal: 72% win probability

Virginia Tech's first cross-country trip of the season comes with surprisingly comfortable odds. FPI gives the Hokies nearly a three-in-four chance to leave Berkeley with a victory. California lost its opener against UCLA 45-24 though it bounced back with a 21-18 victory.

FPI record: 6-0 (3-0 ACC)

Game 7, vs. Georgia Tech: 79.1% win probability

FPI is similarly bullish on Virginia Tech when Georgia Tech visits Lane Stadium. At 79.1%, this is the third-highest remaining win probability for the Hokies. The Yellow Jackets are 0-2; they lost to Colorado 14-13 to open the season, then sustained a 45-24 defeat at the hands of No. 18 Tennessee. In two games, starter Alberto Mendoza is 43-of-63 for 458 yards, one touchdown, two picks and seven sacks.

FPI record: 7-0 (4-0 ACC)

Game 8, at Clemson: 58.9% win probability

FPI actually gives the Hokies a 58.9% chance to win at Clemson, making Virginia Tech a modest favorite despite playing on the road. It's another game that falls well short of certainty, but the model currently likes Franklin's squad, projecting the Hokies to seize their first victory against the Tigers since 2007.

Clemson was thumped by then-No. 11 LUS 51-10 to open its season, though it then countered with a 22-7 win over Georgia Southern in a day where its offense was rather quiet.

FPI record: 8-0 (5-0 ACC)

Game 9, at No. 16 SMU: 34.4% win probability

And here's where the hypothetical undefeated run ends.

Virginia Tech has just a 34.4% chance to beat SMU on the road, making the Mustangs one of only three remaining opponents FPI currently favors over the Hokies.

SMU escaped Doak Campbell Stadium with a 27-24 win despite amassing over 200 more yards of offense, though it then bounced back with a 56-10 thrashing of UC Davis. The Mustangs' clash this weekend with No. 23 Louisville should add a further layer of clarity to this year's ACC title race.

FPI record: 8-1 (5-1 ACC)

Game 10, vs. Stanford: 90.6% win probability

No remaining game receives more confidence from FPI than Stanford's trip to Blacksburg. Virginia Tech's 90.6% win probability against the Cardinal is the only remaining matchup in which the Hokies crack the 90% threshold. Following the projected loss at SMU, FPI sees a strong opportunity for a rebound.

Stanford, which was off this week, opened its season with a 37-27 victory over Hawaii, though then-No. 7 Miami thrashed it the following week 45-6.

FPI record: 9-1 (6-1 ACC)

Game 11, at No. 5 Miami: 9.6% win probability

Then comes the opposite extreme.

Miami represents by far Virginia Tech's most difficult remaining game according to FPI, with the Hokies receiving only a 9.6% chance to win on the road. Through two games, Hurricanes quarterback Darian Mensah is 41-of-45 for 653 yards, eight touchdowns and no interceptions, while Malachi Toney has amassed 330 receiving yards and four scores on 16 catches.

True freshman Javian Mallory has added another 173 yards and two touchdowns on the ground, giving Virginia Tech plenty to worry about when the Hokies make the trip south.

Miami won its opener 45-6 over Stanford before blowing by Florida A&M 77-7 in a game where the Hurricanes racked up 856 yards of offense.

FPI prediction: Virginia Tech loses (9-2, 6-2 ACC)

Game 12, vs. No. 25 Virginia: 51.1% win probability

For the second straight week of FPI projections, the Commonwealth Clash is essentially a coin flip — but this time, Virginia holds the slight advantage.

The Hokies' recent stranglehold on the rivalry came to an end last season, making Franklin's first Commonwealth Clash an opportunity to bring the Cup back to Blacksburg after a 19-for-20 stretch from 2004-2024. Picking strictly by FPI, Virginia Tech's projected regular season would end with a loss, dropping it to 9-3.

Virginia won its opener 34-8 over NC State before taking down Norfolk State 59-3. The Cavaliers are in Charlotte, N.C., this weekend to take on West Virginia in a neutral-site showdown.

Final projected record: 9-3, 6-3 ACC