Updated FPI Game-By-Game Predictions for Virginia Tech Football After 73-3 Win Over VMI

Virginia Tech's dominant 73-3 win over VMI shifted its outlook. Here's how FPI now projects each remaining game on the Hokies' schedule.

Virginia Tech Athletics

BLACKSBURG — Virginia Tech football is 1-0, the byproduct of a 73-3 demolition of VMI Sept. 5 that represented its largest margin of victory in 104 years. Now, the Hokies remain home in Blacksburg to host Old Dominion Sept. 12, looking to bounce back from a 45-26 loss the year prior. With four days separating the Hokies from their second clash of the season, here's a look at how ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) win probabilities has shifted after Tech's 70-point drubbing:

Game 2, vs. Old Dominion: 89.6% odds

Old Dominion beat Norfolk State 31-10 in Week 1, but entered the fourth quarter with just a 17-10 advantage. Virginia Tech's 70-point victory came against a VMI team ranked No. 405 in ESPN writer Bill Connelly's SP+ rankings, so there's only so much stock to put into the result. Still, the Hokies' largest margin of victory in more than a century raises an intriguing question of just how improved this team might be. In the FPI record, Virginia Tech handles the Monarchs comfortably and moves to 2-0.

FPI record: 2-0

Game 3, @ Maryland: 63.2% odds

Virginia Tech hasn't won an out-of-conference game Power Four game period since 2017 against West Virginia, but Maryland provides one of the easier roadmaps to snapping that streak. The Terrapins went 4-8 (1-8 Big Ten) last season and lost their final eight games of the year. Maryland claimed a dominant 62-0 victory over Hampton to open the season, albeit one that comes with the asterisk of FBS vs. FCS. The Pirates enter Week 2 ranked No. 320 in SP+. In the FPI, Virginia Tech improves to 3-0 and snags its first non-conference Power Four win in nine seasons, though it's by no means a gimme.

FPI record: 3-0

Game 4, vs. Boston College: 80.5% odds

Boston College accumulated only two wins last season and went 1-7 in the ACC. In its season opener against Cincinnati, it was handled 34-15 as Eagles starter Mason McKenzie completed 18 of his 35 passes for 224 yards.

By this point, Virginia Tech should also have a considerably better idea of what it has under James Franklin. A road conference opener presents a different challenge than anything the Hokies will face during the opening weeks, but Boston College hasn't shown enough to make me think Virginia Tech should be an underdog in Chestnut Hill. The Hokies open ACC play with a victory and moving to 4-0 in the FPI record.

FPI record: 4-0 (1-0 ACC)

Game 5, vs. Pitt: 50.0% odds

This represents the true definition of a 50/50 game. Literally. FPI gives Virginia Tech and Pitt exactly a 50.0% chance apiece, and the Panthers certainly gave reason for optimism in their opener. Mason Heintschel was elite against Miami (Ohio), going 31-of-41 for 453 yards and an ACC-record seven passing touchdowns. I'll count this one as half a win for Virginia Tech.

FPI record: 4.5-0.5 (1.5-0.5 ACC)

Game 6, @ Cal: 73.5% odds

California clocks in as the third-lowest rated team on Connelly's SP+ rankings. The Golden Bears ceded 21 points in the fourth quarter to UCLA, while second-year starter Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele went 24-for-41 for 271 passing yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions.

Though it may be a slog for Virginia Tech to deal with heading to California — the Hokies at least have an extra day, since their game against Pitt will take place on Friday, Oct. 2 — the FPI metric favors Virginia Tech to take another victory, moving it to either 5-1 or 6-0, depending on which way the Pitt game would swing.

FPI record: 5.5-0.5 (2.5-0.5 ACC)

Game 7, vs. Georgia Tech: 72.9% odds

Georgia Tech lost its opener to Colorado 14-13 after Buffs quarterback Julian Lewis threw a touchdown to tight end Charlie Williams with 42 seconds left and Georgia Tech kicker Aidan Birr's 45-yard kick attempt was blocked.

Virginia Tech lost to Georgia Tech 35-20 last season in Atlanta, but the Yellow Jackets no longer have their stalwart in Haynes King, who's since moved to the NFL. Alberto Mendoza was solid at points in his starting debut, throwing for 237 yards. He didn't reach the end zone, though, and while Virginia Tech's Week 1 performance has to be taken with an asterisk, the Hokies looked comfortable and dominant.

FPI record: 6.5-0.5 (3.5-0.5 ACC)

Game 8, vs. Clemson: 52.9% odds

Clemson was pummeled 51-10 in its opener against LSU, a game where quarterback Christopher Vizzina was held to 83 yards and an interception, while running back Jarvis Green produced 21 yards to lead all rushers.

Virginia Tech, thus, emerges victorious by the FPI against Clemson, which would break a losing streak against the Tigers that dates back all the way to 2007.

FPI record: 7.5-0.5 (4.5-0.5 ACC)

Game 9, vs. SMU: 39.4% odds

Regardless of which way you pick the 50/50 Pitt game on FPI, the run ends here if taking all the FPI results. The Mustangs barely outlasted Florida State 27-24 Monday after a 100-minute power delay, despite accumulating 261 more yards and holding the Seminoles to a 2-for-15 rate on third down.

Kevin Jennings threw for 430 yards and three touchdowns, though he also threw two interceptions. In the FPI, Virginia Tech drops this game and decreases to either 8-1 or 7-2, depending on the Pitt game.

FPI record: 7.5-1.5 (4.5-1.5 ACC)

Game 10, vs. Stanford: 89.3% odds

Stanford's season started with a win over Hawaii, but its ACC opener provided a considerably harsher reality check. The Cardinal were routed 45-6 by No. 7 Miami, allowing 549 total yards while quarterback Davis Warren went 21-of-41 for 214 yards. At home, Virginia Tech should handle this one comfortably.

FPI record: 8.5-1.5 (5.5-1.5 ACC)

Game 11, vs. Miami: 9.0% odds

Despite Virginia Tech's prowess, Miami appears to be the class of the field in the ACC, resulting in a comparable FPI win percentage to last season. In Miami's opener against Stanford, a 45-6 victory, quarterback Darian Mensah was 27-of-30 through the air, tabulating five passing touchdowns with 410 yards. Wide receiver Malachi Toney accumulated 234 receiving yards off 12 catches and scored three times.

While I think Virginia Tech should keep this one close enough, I think FPI is correct in its assessment, dropping Virginia Tech to 9-2/8-3.

FPI record: 8.5-2.5 (5.5-2.5 ACC)

Game 12, vs. Virginia: 50.6% odds

By a razor-thin margin — six-tenths of a percentage point — the FPI metric favors Virginia Tech to pull out a narrow victory over the Cavaliers. Virginia did not play in Week 1, though it opened its season with a 34-8 blowout win over NC State in Week 0.

There will be considerably more evidence on both teams by the time they meet in late November, but for now, this projects as about as close as the Commonwealth Clash can get. Virginia snapped Virginia Tech's lengthy hold on the Commonwealth Cup last season, adding even more weight to the regular-season finale. By the slimmest of margins, FPI has the Hokies returning the favor and reclaiming the Cup in Blacksburg.

FPI record: 9.5-2.5 (6.5-2.5 ACC)

[Note: Adding Virginia Tech's win probabilities across its 11 remaining games, plus the VMI game, produces a cumulative 770.9%, which translates to an expected record of approximately 7.7-4.3.]