FPI Projects Final Score for Massive Game Between Virginia Tech and Pitt

The Hokies look to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2005 when they host Pitt at Lane Stadium this Friday.

Sep 26, 2026; Chestnut Hill, Mass.; Virginia Tech wide receiver Keylen Adams (6) prays before a game against Boston College. | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

BLACKSBURG, Va. — After a 21-14 victory over Boston College on Saturday in Chestnut Hill, Virginia Tech gears up for a Friday night tussle with Pitt. Per The Key Play's Shelton Moss, it's the first matchup in the history of modern college football pitting two unranked 4-0 Power Four teams against one another.

I just looked it up... it has never happened.

Virginia Tech-Pitt will be the first matchup in the history of modern college football to feature two unranked, 4-0 major conference teams.

It has only happened three times in ANY Division I game ever. https://t.co/5SRm81cekk

— Shelton Moss (@SheltonMoss21) September 29, 2026

Here's a quick explainer on how the Football Power Index works.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules."

Despite entering the contest as 3.5-point favorites on DraftKings, Virginia Tech is the underdog by the FPI metric. The metric projects a 42.2% win probability for the Hokies against Pitt on Friday.

The Hokies (4-0, 1-0 ACC) have opened their season with four straight wins for the first time since the 2017. After a 73-3 drubbing of VMI, Virginia Tech beat Old Dominion 44-21 after sustaining a 45-26 loss to the Monarchs nearly a calendar year prior. The Hokies then broke their 15-game Power Four non-conference winning streak when they beat Maryland 35-26 in College Park, Md., on Sept. 19.

Virginia Tech's last game was against Boston College on Sept. 26. The Hokies trailed 14-6 during the fourth quarter; however, behind 140 final-frame rushing yards from sophomore running back Jeffrey Overton Jr., Tech rallied for a 21-14 victory.

Overton Jr., who was named ACC Running Back of the Week for his career-best 209 rushing yards against the Eagles, became the first player since Bhayshul Tuten in 2024 (also against Boston College) to total 200-plus rushing yards.

Overton Jr. was also the first Virginia Tech running back since Tuten that week to garner the ACC Running Back of the Week award. Three Hokies have garnered ACC Player of the Week awards after four games this season: Overton Jr., tight end Luke Reynolds and defensive lineman Mylachi Williams.

Virginia Tech's Oct. 2 clash with Pitt is set for a 7 p.m. ET kickoff on ESPN. If the Hokies win, it'll be their first 5-0 start since the 2005 season.

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