Protect College Sports Bill Not Expected to Get Through House on Kalshi

A major development out of Washington, D.C., on Monday shed light on the Protect College Sports Act after the bill passed through the Senate with a strong 77-22 vote. Despite the passing vote, Kalshi’s college sports market hints at an uphill battle for the bill to pass through the House, with a 53% chance it doesn't pass.

The bill has hovered around the 50% mark for the last two weeks. Kalshi settles the market based on whether the bill becomes law before January 1, 2027. A $10 trade on it passing through the House profits $9.01.

Will the Protect College Sports Act become law this year? - Kalshi

Yes 50%
No 53%

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Insiders hint at roadblocks and challenges

After passing through the Senate, reporters covering Congress and college sports say the House path is still rough.

Dominick Mastrangelo, The Hill: The bill is “expected to face an uphill battle in the House.”
Ralph Russo and Justin Williams, The Athletic: “Could still be weeks away and may face additional challenges.”
Kelsey Brugger and Calen Razor, Politico: “While the 77-22 vote would ordinarily present itself as a welcome glimpse of cross-party unity, it is now being overshadowed by a murky outlook in the House, where Republicans oppose multiple provisions of the Senate package.”

The House has not scheduled a vote. Many do not expect a vote to happen before the November midterms.

What is the Protect College Sports Act?

The Protect College Sports Act would replace state NIL laws with one federal standard and add new college sports rules. On the NIL side, athletes would have to disclose deals over $600, NIL agents would need to register, and agent fees would be capped at 5%.

Under the new regulations, schools would be able to enforce rules regarding transfers, eligibility, and recruiting. Players would also get a five-year window of eligibility with one free transfer. A second transfer would cost a year of eligibility and would be forced to sit out a season.

A multiple “free transfer” exception would apply if a school fires the head coach or the coach leaves, the school drops the sport, or the player graduates from school. Grad transfers would also be able to move without having to sit out.

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