FPI Projects Virginia Tech's Week 4 Game with Boston College

The Hokies look to move to 4-0 in head coach James Franklin's first year with the program.

Ryan Hedley (Virginia Tech Athletics)

BLACKSBURG, Va. — Virginia Tech football travels on the road this week to Chestnut Hill, Mass., looking to continue its unbeaten start to the season as it opens ACC play.

The Hokies (3-0) enter their clash against the Eagles (2-1) with their most points in a three-game span in program history. Virginia Tech thumped VMI 73-3 to open its season, scoring its most points in a single contest since Akron in 1995 and securing its largest margin of victory since Catholic in the 1922 season. The Hokies then followed with a 44-21 victory over Old Dominion, avenging their 19-point loss from a year prior.

Last week against Maryland in College Park, Md., Virginia Tech snapped its 15-game losing streak to Power Four non-conference opponents when it defeated Maryland 35-26. It also snapped the Terrapins' 20-game non-conference winning streak, which was the longest in the country.

On Saturday, Virginia Tech starting quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer went 31-of-39 for 314 yards and three passing touchdowns while also adding an 18-yard rushing touchdown. Grunkemeyer's 314-yard effort made him the first Hokies quarterback since Ryan Willis in 2018 to eclipse 300-plus passing yards in back-to-back games.

Boston College, meanwhile, enters Saturday's showdown with a 2-1 record, having lost its opener to Cincinnati. The Eagles bounced back with a 28-21 victory before narrowly edging past Maine 22-16 in a game where BC was heavily favored.

Virginia Tech is 22-11 against Boston College all-time and is 10-6 on the road. The Hokies have won four of their last five showdowns against the Eagles and have claimed each of the last three. But what does FPI think of the Hokies' chances of improving to 4-0?

First, here's a quick explainer on how the Football Power Index actually works.

"FPI is a predictive rating system designed to measure team strength and project performance going forward. The ultimate goal of FPI is not to rank teams 1 through [136]; rather, it is to correctly predict games and season outcomes. If Vegas ever published the power rankings it uses to set its lines, they would likely look quite a lot like FPI. Correctly predicting game outcomes can’t be done by evaluating teams’ records because some teams are stronger than their records indicate (lots of close losses), and others have favorable schedules."

Virginia Tech holds a 86.4% chance to win Saturday's game against Boston College. The Eagles rank No. 85 on SP+, second-lowest of the ACC opponents the Hokies will play this year. The only lower opponent is Stanford (No. 104).

The Hokies' contest against the Eagles is set for Saturday, Sept. 26, at 12 p.m. ET. Coverage for the contest will be on the ACC Network.