SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-NC State Final Score

Who does the SP+ metric predict to win Saturday's showdown in Raleigh?

Sep. 20, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech running back Marcellous Hawkins (27) runs the ball. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 5. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate, offering a data-driven perspective on how teams stack up beyond the traditional polls.

WEEK 5 SP+ PICKS

Oregon 27.2, Penn St 26.8 (😳)
Bama 27.2, UGA 26.4 (😳😳)
Irish 31, Hogs 29
Ole Miss 29, LSU 23
Buckeyes 31, Huskies 21
USC 34, Illini 26
A&M 29, Auburn 24
Indiana 30, Iowa 21 (TRAP GAME TRAP GAME TRAP GAME)
FSU 28, UVA 25https://t.co/sAeat1OkDX pic.twitter.com/Fp2phxSVKb

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 22, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

NC State (3-1, 1-1 ACC) dropped eight spots to No. 64 following its Week 4 loss to Duke. Its offense ranks No. 43 with a score of 31.4, its defense is No. 84 with a score of 28.9 and its special teams is No. 102, with a tally of -0.1. The Wolfpack's cumulative total sits at 2.4. (Editor's note: a higher number is better on offense, while a lower number is better on defense)

Meanwhile, the Hokies (1-3) have a cumulative total of -4.8 and sit at No. 82 in the country, having gained one spot since its Week 4 thrashing of FCS Wofford (0-4), 38-6. The Hokies' offense ranks No. 80 with a score of 25.5, its defense sits at No. 89 with a score of 30.3 and its special teams sits at No. 31 with a tally of 0.1.

Connelly's projections predict a 34-24 triumph for NC State, give the Wolfpack a 73% chance of claiming the victory and favor NC State by 9.7 points; his over/under, like ESPN BET's, is set at 58.5, with his prediction being set marginally under.

Connelly's SP+ predictions for Saturday's showdown are close to Vegas' odds, which currently list the Wolfpack as 10.5-point favorites.

Virginia Tech will contest the Wolfpack in Raleigh, N.C. on Saturday, Sept. 27 at 7 p.m. ET. Viewers can watch the game on the CW.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.