SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Vanderbilt Final Score

Will Virginia Tech be able to defeat Vanderbilt at home on Saturday night?

Nov 23, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry looks on during the second half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images | Jaylynn Nash-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech played No. 10 South Carolina down to the wire on Sunday, but that still counts as a loss in the record books. This Saturday, the Hokies are going to be at home for the first time this season and they will be facing Vanderbilt, a team that beat them in a big upset last season.

Who wins on Saturday?

Aug 31, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies wide receiver Isaiah Spencer (14) reacts after making a catch against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Virginia Tech is a slight favorite on Saturday according to the oddsmakers, but what does SP+ think about this Saturday's game?

Bill Connelly's SP+ is favoring Vanderbilt on Saturday. SP+ projects the Commodores to win 28-24 and gives them a 59% chance to win the game.

What is SP+? Here is how ESPN analyst Bill Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

Can Virginia Tech move on from Sunday's loss?

Aug 31, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies wide receiver Isaiah Spencer (14) makes a catch under South Carolina Gamecocks defensive back Damarcus Leach (19) during the second half at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images | Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

When you nearly beat a top-15 team as an underdog, it can be hard to get over. Will Virginia Tech he ready to go on Saturday night? Haad coach Brent Pry addressed that today:

"Yeah, I think a lot of times that's the case. You do spend more time on Week 1 and we got into Vanderbilt a little bit in preseason camp. Just some uniqueness with their offense. But that's why I like that we practice the day after the game. We go out, we make corrections. We introduced Vanderbilt at the end of practice last night and spent 15 minutes working on those guys. Kind of move on, close one chapter, open the next, and get ready for these guys. The guys are excited to be at home, to play at Lane Stadium. They're excited to play Vanderbilt again. They're excited to play a second SEC opponent. Diego Pavia, obviously one of the best quarterbacks in the country, in my opinion. We saw it firsthand. He took down [then-No. 1] Alabama last year. Had a great year. He looks even better to me right now. He's a dual threat guy again this week, that can can beat you with his legs, beat you with his arms. He's got a nice arsenal of receivers that got good speed, particularly the [Junior Sherrill] kid, we know. [Running back Sedrick Alexander] looked fantastic in week one. [Tight end Eli Stowers] is one of the better [tight ends] in the country. They got all their linebackers back. They got both corners back. I think 96 [Khordae Sydnor], one of their best D-linemen. And then [No. 5 Yilanan Ouattara] didn't play in the opener. He's a 6'7" guy. Imposing presence. We got our hands full. It's a very talented football team."

Virginia Tech could really use a win here, as an 0-2 start is tough to overcome, even if they have not lost a conference game yet. Let's see what the Hokies can do on Saturday night.