SP+ Predicts Virginia Tech-Virginia Final Score

Who does the SP+ metric predict to win Saturday's showdown in Charlottesville?

Nov 22, 2025; Blacksburg, Va.; Virginia Tech quarterback William Watson III (5) and wide receiver Isaiah Spencer (11) celebrate a touchdown by Watson. | Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

ESPN college football analyst Bill Connelly has released the latest update to his SP+ rankings, providing a fresh look at where programs across the country stand, in his opinion, entering Week 14. Along with the updated ratings, Connelly also projects win probabilities for each matchup on the slate. So, how does Virginia Tech fare against No. 17 Virginia?

WEEK 14 SP+ PICKS

Rebs 37, #Clanga 22
UGA 36, GT 23
Indiana 43, Purdue 9
A&M 30, Texas 25
Miami 30, Pitt 24
Ohio St 31, Michigan 17
Oregon 29, UW 23
Vols 32, Vandy 31
FSU 28, Florida 21
Bama 27, Auburn 21
Irish 42, Stanford 10

Some strange lines in here.https://t.co/w9ANgYY9XO pic.twitter.com/Ob0uB01pN2

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) November 24, 2025

First off: what is SP+? Here is how Connelly describes it:

"In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.

SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise."

No. 17 Virginia (9-2, 6-1) jumped three spots to No. 31 after its bye week and its 34-17 Week 12 victory over Duke. Its offense ranks No. 46 with a score of 31.3, its defense sits at No. 31 with a total of 20.5 and its special teams is at No. 48 with a 0.2 score. The Cavaliers have a cumulative total of 11.0. [Editor's note: A higher total number is better on offense; a lower total number is better on defense].

Virginia Tech (3-7, 2-4 ACC) has a cumulative total of -5.8 and sits at No. 95, having dropped seven spots from No. 88 after its 34-14 loss to Florida State this past Saturday. The Hokies' offense ranks at No. 88 (down nine spots from Week 12) with a score of 24.0, its defense sits at No. 89 (down one spot) with a score of 29.6 and its special teams ranks at No. 91 (down 15 spots) with a tally of -0.2.

Virginia Tech (3-8, 2-5 ACC) has a cumulative total of -8.6 and is now at No. 103, having dropped eight spots from No. 95 following its 34-17 loss to then-No. 14 Miami on Saturday. The Hokies' offense ranks at No. 97 (down nine spots from Week 13) with a score of 23.1, its defense sits at No. 100 (down 11 spots) with a 31.5 mark and its special teams ranks at No. 88 (up three spots) with a tally of -0.1.

Connelly's projections predict a 38-16 triumph for Virginia, give the Hokies a 8% chance of claiming the victory and favor the Cavaliers by 22.2 points. Connelly's over/under is set at 52.5; his pick is over and his against-the-spread pick is Virginia.

Connelly's SP+ margin is far more pessimistic about the Hokies' than ESPN BET's, which lists Tech as 11.5-point pups, a 10.7-point difference.

Virginia Tech will take on Virginia on Saturday, Nov. 29 at 7 p.m. ET, with viewing for the matchup available on ESPN.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.