SP+ Projects Final Score for Virginia Tech vs. Pitt Matchup
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BLACKSBURG, Va. — Virginia Tech football looks to improve to 5-0 for the first time since 2005 when it hosts Pitt this Friday at Lane Stadium.
The Hokies (4-0, 1-0 ACC) have kicked off their season with wins over VMI (73-3), Old Dominion (44-21), Maryland (45-26), and Boston College (21-14).
Pitt is also 4-0, the byproduct of victories over Miami (OH) (59-14), UCF (12-7), Syracuse (27-13) and Bucknell (59-0). Saturday's clash will be the first between two unranked 4-0 major conference teams in modern college football history, per The Key Play's Shelton Moss.
I just looked it up... it has never happened.
— Shelton Moss (@SheltonMoss21) September 29, 2026
Virginia Tech-Pitt will be the first matchup in the history of modern college football to feature two unranked, 4-0 major conference teams.
It has only happened three times in ANY Division I game ever. https://t.co/5SRm81cekk
Virginia Tech's off to its first 4-0 start since 2017, and for the first time since 2017, it — as a 4-0 squad — will play another 4-0 team in Lane Stadium. The last occasion came against then-No. 12 Clemson, a game Virginia Tech lost 31-17.
The SP+ metric projects a razor-thin outcome for Friday's affair, favoring Virginia Tech by 0.1 points. The rounded projected score is an even 26-26, though Connelly posted on his X (formerly Twitter) that the projected score (to a tenth) leans towards Virginia Tech, 25.8-25.7.
Virginia Tech quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer has thrown for 1,012 yards, eight touchdowns and zero interceptions, while Pitt signal-caller Mason Heintschel's compiled 1,191 passing yards and a 13:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Heintschel scored all 13 of his touchdowns in two games against Miami (OH) and Bucknell (seven against Miami (OH) and six vs. Bucknell); in the other two games, he threw for a combined 335 yards against UCF and Syracuse, logging no passing touchdowns and one interception.
Among 94 collegiate quarterbacks with at least 101 dropbacks this season — half of the national high of 202 — Grunkemeyer is one of 11 quarterbacks yet to throw an interception and one of three in the ACC, joining Stanford's Davis Warren and Miami's Darian Mensah.
Albeit barely, it continues a season-long streak in which Virginia Tech has entered every game as the SP+ favorite. The margin may be considerably tighter this time around, but the model still gives the Hokies the slight edge as they prepare for arguably their toughest test of the young season.
Virginia Tech enters this clash ranked No. 28 on SP+, while Pitt enters at No. 20. It's the first time this year the Hokies face off against an opponent higher on the SP+ rankings. Maryland's the next-highest that Tech has played against this year, coming in at No. 56.
Virginia Tech's game against Pitt is set for a 7 p.m. ET start, with coverage for the contest available on ESPN.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.
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Hughes serves as Virginia Tech On SI's lead editor, a position that he has held since July 2025. Hughes is a junior at Virginia Tech majoring in sports media and analytics. He also serves as the open-wheel correspondent for the motorsports outlet Steering Wheel Nation, where he has written on Formula 1, the NTT IndyCar Series, the NASCAR Cup Series and the NASCAR CRAFTSMAN Truck Series. Hughes has previously authored bylines in 3304 Sports, Virginia Tech's multimedia student journalism outlet.
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