Three Biggest Questions for Virginia Tech Ahead of Their Matchup vs. Cal

Cal’s first availability report came out Wednesday night with eight names on it, and all eight are questionable.

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is one. So are safety Kingston Lopa, the FBS interception leader; eading rusher Adam Mohammed and wide receiver Chase Hendricks. Virginia Tech listed three players as out and eight as questionable, and none of them started against Pitt.

The Hokies (4–1, 1–1 ACC) opened as 10.5-point favorites on FanDuel Sportsbook at Cal (2–3, 1–1), with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ACC Network.

Here are the three biggest questions for Saturday’s game.

Is the turnover problem bad luck or a bad habit?

Tech is minus-five in turnover margin, and seven of its nine giveaways are lost fumbles.

Over a long enough stretch, teams recover about half. ESPN’s Bill Connelly builds his turnover-luck numbers on that 50% rate. Give Tech nine of those 18 and its margin is even.

Tech has put the ball on the ground eight times and lost seven. Its opponents have fumbled 10 times and lost three. That’s 18 loose balls, and the Hokies have come up with four.

The damage was late in coming, too. Tech’s first five giveaways cost it six points. The four against Pitt cost 14, in a game it lost by two.

So the fumbles should come back around. The interceptions are the real test. Junior quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer threw 136 passes over four games without one, then threw two against Pitt. Cal has nine takeaways, and seven are interceptions.

Lopa has five of them, and defensive back Aiden Manutai has another, and both are questionable. The Bears take the ball away from the one-way Tech; until last Friday, they hadn’t been giving it away. Whether they still can depends on who lines up in the secondary.

Can the Hokies finish drives and stop Cal from finishing?

Each team made four trips inside the 20 on Friday. Pitt scored 21 points. Tech scored 10.

Tech got one touchdown, one field goal, an interception, and the 36-yard miss at the end. On the interception, coach James Franklin said Monday that tight end Luke Reynolds was open in the flat. “We tried to make a throw that we didn’t need to try to make,” Franklin said.

It’s a two-game trend. Tech scored touchdowns on 12 of 16 red-zone trips in its first three games and on two of six against Boston College and Pitt.

The defense has the same issue in reverse. Tech allows 274.4 yards per game, 23rd in the FBS. But opponents have scored touchdowns on 10 of 13 red-zone trips, including nine of 10 over the last three games.

Cal is built to make that matter. The Bears allow 360.8 yards per game and 187.4 on the ground, so Tech will move the ball. But they’ve given up touchdowns on only eight of 17 red-zone trips, and their own offense has scored on 15 of 16.

What happens after halftime?

Against its four FBS opponents, Tech has gone into halftime with a combined 88–41 lead. After the break, those same teams have outscored the Hokies 55–45.

Cal’s numbers run the other way. Against FBS opponents, the Bears have been outscored 53–17 in the second quarter and 43–20 in the fourth. The third is the only quarter they’ve controlled, 28–13. At UNLV, Lupoi handed the play-calling to passing game coordinator Pat McCann at halftime, down 24–7, and the Bears scored 24 after the break. They did it with backup Jackson Brousseau at quarterback and without Mohammed.

So Tech should lead at halftime. The second quarter is its best against FBS teams, with 50 points, and it’s Cal’s worst. What Tech does with its first two possessions of the third quarter will say more about this team than the final score.

A win sends Tech home at 5–1 with Georgia Tech coming to Lane Stadium on Oct. 17 and bowl eligibility one win away.

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