Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against Stanford
In this story:
Virginia Tech hasn’t played in Lane Stadium since Oct. 17, when it beat Georgia Tech 34-24 to get to 5-2.
The four weeks since have pulled this team in two directions. The Hokies beat Clemson for the first time since 2007 and clinched bowl eligibility. Then, coming off a bye, they gave up 51 points at SMU, more than any Virginia Tech defense had allowed since the 2021 Pinstripe Bowl.
Saturday night against Stanford is the first look at which of those teams came home.
My confidence meter sits at 88% that the Hokies win. Stanford’s road record and its run defense get me most of the way there. The rest depends on a secondary SMU just picked apart.
The 88%
Stanford has made four road trips this season and lost them by an average of 40 points. Louisville was the closest, and the Cardinal still gave up the last 28 points after tying it at 24 in the third quarter. That loss was their 15th straight on the road, the longest active streak in the FBS.
The run defense is where it falls apart. Opponents average 199.7 rushing yards a game against Stanford, and the Cardinal have allowed conversions on 49.6% of third downs.
Jeffrey Overton Jr. should eat. He ran for 123 yards and two touchdowns on 13 carries at SMU, his third 100-yard game of the season, and he’s up to 762 yards at 6.0 yards per carry.
SMU sacked Ethan Grunkemeyer four times. Stanford averages fewer than one sack a game. That should buy Grunkemeyer time, and he hasn’t needed much to be efficient: 71.7% completions, 2,431 yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Que’Sean Brown has 60 catches for 722 yards.
Stanford quarterback Davis Warren won’t get the same courtesy. Virginia Tech has 28 sacks, and Aycen Stevens has 8.5 of them. Warren has run for negative yardage in five of his nine games, so he isn’t running away from many of them.
Then there’s the setting. The Hokies are 3-1 in Lane Stadium, and the place is sold out for a 7:30 p.m. kickoff.
The 12%
SMU scored on its first eight possessions and finished with 569 yards. By Monday, Virginia Tech’s pass defense ranked outside the top 100 nationally in passing yards per game allowed.
Stanford has a quarterback who can make that a problem again. Warren, a sixth-year Michigan transfer, has 2,203 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and three interceptions. Over his last two games, he threw for 303 yards and four touchdowns against NC State, then 270 and three at Louisville. Stanford runs for just 108.8 yards a game, so this one is going to be on his arm, aimed at a secondary that just got torched.
Friday night’s availability report added one new name, and it’s a cornerback. Joshua Clarke is listed as doubtful. Most of the rest broke Virginia Tech’s way. Left tackle Justin Terry moved up from questionable to probable, and cornerback Thomas Williams isn’t on the report, which means he’s available. Offensive linemen Nathaniel Wright, Lucas Austin, and Marlen Bright are still out.
Stanford has something to play for, too. At 4-5, it needs two wins in its last three games to reach a bowl for the first time since 2018.
Where I land
Stanford hasn’t shown it can win away from home, and its defense can’t stop the one thing Overton does best. If the Hokies run it 35 times, Overton gets his 100 and Grunkemeyer stays clean, this is over by the fourth quarter.
The 12% lives in the secondary. If the corners play as they did in Dallas, Warren is good enough to keep Stanford around into the second half.
Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET with coverage on the ACC Network.
Add us as a preferred source on Google
James Duncan serves as a staff writer for Virginia Tech On SI, covering football, men’s and women’s basketball and recruiting. He is a 2026 Virginia Tech graduate, having majored in Sports Media and Analytics with a minor in Professional and Technical Writing. Duncan previously covered the Washington Commanders as a reporter for The Lead, where he reported on the team throughout an offseason.