Three Bold Predictions for Virginia Tech vs. Pitt

Pitt plays its first road game of the season Friday at Virginia Tech, with a share of first place in the ACC at stake.

Sep 19, 2026; College Park, Maryland, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer (17) waits for a timeout to end in the first half against the Maryland Terrapins at SECU Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-Imagn Images | IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect

Pitt hasn't allowed a point in the first or third quarter this season. Pitt also hasn't left Pittsburgh.

That changes today at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN, when the Panthers (4-0, 1-0 ACC) walk into a sold-out Lane Stadium to face a Virginia Tech team (4-0, 1-0 ACC) chasing its first 5-0 start since 2005. The winner moves into a three-way tie for first place in the ACC.

"It'll be one of the louder games we play," Pitt head coach Pat Narduzzi said this week.

Here are three bold predictions for the game.

1. Jeffrey Overton Jr. runs for 100 yards on the nation's No. 4 run defense

Pitt has allowed 213 rushing yards in four games. Overton ran for 209 yards last Saturday at Boston College, including the 76-yard touchdown that put Virginia Tech ahead for good in a 21-14 win.

That earned him ACC Running Back of the Week. The sophomore missed the first eight games of last season with an injury and finished 2025 with 25 carries. He already has 60 this fall, for 409 yards and four rushing touchdowns at 6.8 yards per carry.

He'll run Friday without left tackle Justin Terry, who is out. That's a real problem against a defense allowing 53.3 rushing yards per game.

2. Mason Heintschel leaves Blacksburg without a touchdown pass

Pitt's sophomore quarterback has thrown 13 touchdown passes, second in the ACC. Seven came against Miami (Ohio). Six came against Bucknell. Against UCF and Syracuse, he went 28 of 52 for 335 yards with no touchdowns and an interception.

The Panthers got past Syracuse by running for 245 yards, and true freshman running back Damon Ferguson Jr. leads the team with 239 yards for the season. Virginia Tech has to take that away first.

Then comes the hard part for Heintschel. This is his first road start of the season, against a defense that leads the nation with 45 tackles for loss and 17 sacks.

The risk sits behind Virginia Tech's front. Maryland threw for 359 yards and three touchdowns on the Hokies two weeks ago, and Virginia Tech has one interception in four games. Defensive coordinator Brent Pry's group doesn't have to be perfect.

It has to make Heintschel uncomfortable, and no defense in the country has lived in the backfield more.

3. John Love hits a walk-off field goal, and Virginia Tech is ranked by Sunday

John Love has scored 313 points in a Virginia Tech uniform. The next three decide Friday night.

"This is going to be a battle," Virginia Tech head coach James Franklin said Monday.

Franklin would know. He faced Narduzzi four times from 2016-19 when he was at Penn State.

Pitt leads the ACC at 8.5 points allowed per game and hasn't given up more than 14 to anyone. I have Virginia Tech get past that number, but not by much. The Panthers stay in it on the ground, the way they did against Syracuse.

That leaves it to Love. The fifth-year kicker is fourth on Virginia Tech's all-time scoring list, has a career-long of 60 yards, and went 2 for 2 at Boston College.

He gets one more with the clock running out. Virginia Tech wins 24-21.

The Hokies have 86 points in the AP poll, fifth among teams outside the Top 25, and haven't been ranked since 2021. With a win on Friday night, it will be hard to leave them out for another week.