Updated FPI Win Projection and Win Total For Virginia Tech After Loss to Pitt

ESPN's FPI favors Virginia Tech in four of its seven remaining games after the Hokies' 35-33 loss to Pitt.

Virginia Tech Athletics

BLACKSBURG — Following a 35-33 loss to Pitt Friday, Virginia Tech's postseason outlook has shifted noticeably, though several victories remain set in stone. Here's a look at how that impacted the Hokies' hopes on ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI):

Game 6, at California: 71.9% win probability

Cal fell to 2-3 with a 39-31 loss to UNLV, its second consecutive defeat. The Golden Bears erased a 24-7 halftime deficit and briefly took the lead, but couldn't finish the comeback in Las Vegas.

Quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele left late in the second quarter after hitting his head on the turf, leaving Jackson Brousseau to handle the second half. Cal also played without leading rusher Adam Mohammed, adding another concern ahead of Saturday's matchup with Virginia Tech. Cal's rally showed its ability to respond, though consecutive losses leave the Bears in search of a turnaround.

FPI record: 5-1 (1-1 ACC)

Game 7, vs. Georgia Tech: 79.3% win probability

Georgia Tech was idle this past weekend, leaving the Yellow Jackets at 1-3 following their 34-27 loss to Stanford on Sept. 26. Their lone victory came against Mercer, with losses to Colorado and Tennessee preceding the conference-opening setback.

The Yellow Jackets host Duke before visiting Lane Stadium, giving them another opportunity to change the direction of their season. Virginia Tech currently holds its second-highest remaining projection behind Stanford, though.

FPI record: 6-1 (2-1 ACC)

Game 8, at Clemson: 49.6% win probability

Clemson took a considerable step backward Saturday, losing 41-13 at home to No. 4 Miami. The Tigers (3-2, 2-1 ACC) fell out of a tie for first in the ACC with an offense that struggled to keep pace throughout the evening.

Miami held Clemson to 55 rushing yards and recorded six sacks, exposing problems up front. FPI nevertheless views Virginia Tech's trip to Memorial Stadium as nearly even, though.

FPI record: 6-2 (2-2 ACC)

Game 9, at No. 24 SMU: 42.4% win probability

SMU improved to 4-1 with a 25-16 victory over Boston College in rainy conditions Saturday. Kevin Jennings threw for 160 yards and two touchdowns, though the Mustangs were outgained 322-218 and needed contributions beyond their passing attack. The defense supplied them, recording five sacks, including three from Marques White.

FPI record: 6-3 (2-3 ACC)

Game 10, vs. Stanford: 93.8% win probability

Stanford's momentum from beating Georgia Tech disappeared quickly in a 57-3 loss to Wake Forest on Saturday. The Cardinal fell to 2-3, following a seven-point conference victory with a 54-point defeat at the hands of Wake Forest. Virginia Tech's 93.8% win probability makes this its most favorable remaining matchup by a substantial margin.

FPI record: 7-3 (3-3 ACC)

Game 11, at No. 4 Miami: 6.2% win probability

Miami improved to 5-0 with its rout of Clemson, pairing a disruptive defense with sustained offensive production. Mark Fletcher Jr. scored twice on the ground, while the Hurricanes added a late interception return for a touchdown. The Miami contest remains Virginia Tech's toughest projection; the 'Canes have separated themselves as the main force to contend with in the ACC.

FPI record: 7-4 (3-4 ACC)

Game 12, vs. Virginia: 59.0% win probability

Virginia scored first at Florida State, then surrendered 38 unanswered points in a 38-7 defeat. The Cavaliers allowed 10 sacks and finished with just 205 yards, dropping to 3-2. Florida State quarterback Ashton Daniels rushed for five touchdowns as the Seminoles repeatedly punished Virginia's defense. FPI still projects a competitive rivalry finale, giving Virginia Tech a 59.0% chance to close the regular season with a victory.

FPI record: 8-4 (4-4 ACC)