Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against Old Dominion

On Saturday, on a seven-game winning streak, the longest in program history. Almost nobody in Blacksburg is talking about that. They're talking about last Sept. 13, and so is the building. Head coach James Franklin said Monday that the tape of that game is running on a loop through the football facility this week.

So let's put a number on it. Heading into week two, my confidence meter on Virginia Tech sits at 90 percent to beat Old Dominion.

Here's the breakdown.

The 90 percent

Virginia Tech beat VMI 73-3 in James Franklin's debut. The Hokies piled up 619 total yards, scored on their first six possessions and punted just once. The defense gave up 83 yards.

Yes, it was VMI. Picked last in the Southern Conference, first-year head coach- the whole thing. A blowout of an FCS opponent tells you almost nothing about November. It does tell you something about process, and the process was clean.

Ethan Grunkemeyer went 17 of 20 for 224 yards and two touchdowns before he came out in the third quarter. The Penn State transfer already has a guy he trusts. Duke transfer Que'Sean Brown caught six balls for 109 yards, including a 51-yard touchdown. Jeffrey Overton Jr. carried nine times for 104 yards and scored twice. Marcellous Hawkins Jr. added 69 yards and three touchdowns.

Two backs who cost you nothing when they rotate. A quarterback who plays fast and doesn't hold it. A defense that took apart the one scheme it spent August preparing for. That's the case for 90.

The 10 percent

Old Dominion isn't a bad team wearing a mid-major logo. The Monarchs went 10-3 last season, beat South Florida 24-10 in the Cure Bowl, and matched the best record in program history. They gave up 19.6 points per game, 15th nationally. Sun Belt coaches picked them second in the East this preseason.

And they've done this before. Virginia Tech leads the series 4-3, but ODU's three wins are the 2018 stunner in Norfolk against a No. 13 Tech team, the 20-17 loss that opened Pry's tenure in 2022 and last year's 45-26 wreck that ended it. This series doesn't do close games. Six of the seven meetings were decided by double digits. It's a blowout or a disaster, and there's rarely a third option in the sample.

The Monarchs' defense showed up in week one, too. Old Dominion held Norfolk State to 220 yards with three sacks, 11 tackles for loss, and three takeaways in a 31-10 win. Virginia Tech was flagged 11 times for 93 yards against VMI, a lack of discipline Franklin spent all week warning wouldn't fly against tougher opponents.

Then there's the reunion. Franklin and ODU head coach Ricky Rahne worked together at Kansas State, Vanderbilt, and Penn State, where Rahne ran Franklin's offense before taking the Monarchs job in 2020. Rahne also has a quarterback in sophomore Quinn Henicle, who accounted for all four Old Dominion touchdowns last week, two through the air and two on the ground, while running for 68 yards. Nothing VMI put on the field looked like that.

Where I land

Ninety percent means I think Virginia Tech wins, and I don't think it will be particularly close. It also means that I think the Hokies will coast to a victory, like it did against VMI.

Virginia Tech and Old Dominion kick off on Saturday at noon ET at Lane Stadium. Coverage of the game will be on The CW.

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