Virginia Tech Confidence Meter: How I Feel About the Hokies' Chances Against VMI

Last fall, William "Pop" Watson III was Virginia Tech's second-string quarterback, a redshirt sophomore with just two career starts to his name. Thursday night in Piscataway, New Jersey, he went 19-of-22 for 197 yards and three touchdowns, added 40 yards on six carries, and walked UMass out of SHI Stadium with a 37-21 win over Rutgers as a 28.5-point underdog.

So, no, my confidence in Virginia Tech's chances against VMI isn't 100 percent, but it's about as close to 100 as it can get.

Why it's 99 percent

VMI is coming off back-to-back 1-11 seasons and went 0-8 in the Southern Conference last year. The Keydets already played a game, and it did not go well, losing 38-10 against Idaho State. The Keydets threw for just 11 yards last week, and do not be surprised if they throw for a similar number against the Hokies.

The gap is priced accordingly. The consensus line has Virginia Tech at 55.5 points, with an over/under of 62.5.

Head coach James Franklin has a quarterback he trusts. Ethan Grunkemeyer, the Penn State transfer who followed Franklin to Blacksburg, was named the starter and a team captain on Aug. 31. He threw for 1,339 yards, eight touchdowns, and four interceptions last season, completed 69.1 percent of his passes, and won his final four starts for the Nittany Lions. For context, 69.1 percent would beat Hendon Hooker's school single-season record of 65.3 percent.

Why it isn't 100 percent

Because of what happened Thursday to Rutgers, and because it's happened here.

Virginia Tech learned that lesson the hard way on Sept. 11, 2010, when James Madison walked into Lane Stadium and beat the No. 13-ranked Hokies 21-16 as a 32.5-point underdog. It remains an extreme rarity, but FCS teams have proven they can beat Power Conference opponents, and they will always have the chance to do it when the favorite gives them one.

Then there's the offense VMI is bringing up Interstate 81. First-year head coach Ashley Ingram spent 16 seasons at Navy and two more winning at Division II Carson-Newman, and he brought the triple option with him. The Keydets ran it 52 times for 229 yards at Idaho State. Nobody else on Virginia Tech's schedule runs anything like it, which means a week of preparation buys the Hokies exactly one game's worth of return.

The man solving it is Brent Pry, who was fired as Virginia Tech's head coach last September, the morning after a home loss to Old Dominion dropped the Hokies to 0-3, and who is now back on that sideline as Franklin's defensive coordinator.

The 1 percent isn't a prediction. It's an acknowledgment that Thursday night happened, to a Big Ten team, at home, to a program that hadn't won in 16 tries, with a quarterback who was on Virginia Tech's roster nine months ago.

Kickoff for the game is at 7:30 p.m. ET on the ACC Network.

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