Way-Too-Early Virginia Tech Football Preview and Prediction: Week 5, at NC State

Virginia Tech On SI's Thomas Hughes and Kaden Reinhard preview the Hokies' fifth opponent of the year, NC State, and predict whether or not Tech can capture its ACC opener.

Nov 18, 2023; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies quarterback Kyron Drones (1) throws a pass against the North Carolina State Wolfpack at Lane Stadium. | Peter Casey-Imagn Images

In the fourth installment of our “Way-Too-Early” series on Virginia Tech football’s hypothetical 2025 season, the Hokies (3-1 “Way-Too-Early”) begin ACC play, trekking to Raleigh to take on NC State, led by sophomore quarterback CJ Bailey.

The Hokies hold a 28-20-4 all-time record against the Wolfpack. Tech and NC State have played three times in the last half-decade, with the Wolfpack claiming each of the last two matchups. 2023 was the last matchup between the Hokies and NC State; the Wolfpack won, 35-28, behind the power of a 21-point second frame and quarterback Brennan Armstrong’s four touchdowns (two rushing, two passing). That 2023 game was not as close as the score indicates. NC State led 28-7 at one point before Tech added 14 points in the fourth.

The opening conference contest can pose a difficult task for a handful of programs, but with the SEC gauntlet that the Hokies opened the season with, they enter the slate well prepared for the Wolfpack.

The same cannot be said for NC State. This will be its fourth ACC contest on their 2025 schedule — a grueling stretch that includes back-to-back games against Virginia, Wake Forest, Duke, and now the Hokies.

At this point in our hypothetical 2025 campaign, Tech finds itself at a pivotal juncture. The outcome in Raleigh against the Wolfpack could shape the rest of the season, and we see three possible paths ahead. The first scenario is the optimistic route: The Hokies beat NC State and build momentum into a promising October. The second? Tech implodes with a loss and cascades into an unpleasant November. And the third? It’s one befitting of the Hokies: a team not great enough to contend, but not bad enough to bottom out.

All three outcomes hinge on two factors: the strength of Tech’s defense and the performance of Kyron Drones. For better or worse, the Hokies’ season will be defined by Drones, a multi-faceted quarterback who remains unproven. While 2025 marks Year 3 with Drones at the helm, his resumé is still incomplete. He opened Year 1 as a backup before taking over for Grant Wells midseason, and Year 2 was cut short by injuries.

Senior season in Blacksburg for Kyron Drones ⚡️

How far can the dual-threat QB take @HokiesFB this season? pic.twitter.com/8U1cH7FIvV

— ACC Network (@accnetwork) May 2, 2025

If Drones is healthy in Year 3, the Hokies will finally get a full look at what they have under center. We expect Drones to improve on his injury-shortened 2024, but not quite reach the level he flashed at the end of 2023. That's partially because he has fewer weapons, especially at the receiver position, where several key starters departed for the NFL, either via the draft or as undrafted free agents. The NC State offers a measuring stick, both for how Tech’s new receiving corps holds up and for what Drones’ true ceiling might be.

It also offers Tech its first game-time glimpse of CJ Bailey. Bailey’s 2024 season as a true freshman was a rollercoaster: assertive at times, but rocky. While that’s true of any budding freshman quarterback, the highs were especially high for Bailey. One of the brightest showings of his first collegiate season came in November, when the Wolfpack eviscerated Stanford in a 59-28 drubbing.

In that contest, Bailey was efficient, scoring on the Cardinal defense on every drive he played. And he only missed two of his 20 throws. Though it came against Stanford, a team that Tech steamrolled 31-7 a month prior, it’s hard to only miss two of 20 against any Power 4 team.

But Bailey’s tendency to deliver fiery plays was also met with occasionally icy outings. One of those showings was the week after NC State extinguished Stanford. On a cold night in Raleigh, Bailey accumulated just 184 passing yards, completing 16 of his 39 passing attempts. A week later, Bailey tossed 147 yards against Georgia Tech and threw no touchdowns, along with three interceptions. The only game that was worse? Bailey’s second start, a 109-yard effort against Northern Illinois in a narrow 24-17 win last September.

Four of Bailey’s 2024 outings resulted in a quarterback rating over 70; on the flip side, he dipped below 46 five times. Though Drones’ 2024 campaign wasn’t a complete one, it does offer up a roughly comparable measuring stick when dismissing his shortened game against Clemson. Through three straight weeks, the then-junior tallied three scores over 78 (78.8 vs. Miami on Sept. 27, 83.6 at Stanford on Oct. 5 and 83.9 vs. Boston College on October 17).

Dec 28, 2024; Annapolis, MD, USA; North Carolina State Wolfpack quarterback CJ Bailey (16) throws from the pocket during the first half of the the Go Bowling Military Bowl against the East Carolina Pirates at Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images | Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

In the 2023 game against the Wolfpack, Drones recorded a QBR of 53.3, a solid but unremarkable number. In that game, Drones tossed three scores and a pick, accumulated 225 passing yards, and ran for 51 rushing yards. In this year’s iteration, Tech will need a better version of Drones, one that can either match or exceed Bailey.

Like Drones, Bailey will have less to work with this year, since the Wolfpack lost their WR1, Kevin Concepcion, to Texas A&M. In the 2023 game against the Hokies, Concepcion tallied 63 rushing yards, 44 receiving yards, and a passing touchdown on a gadget play.

Forcing pressure from the defensive line onto Bailey will be vital in disrupting his rhythm in the backfield. Tech utilized the transfer portal to fill pieces on their defensive line, with both Antwaun Powell-Ryland (Eagles) and Aeneas Peebles (Ravens) off to the NFL. In the offseason, Tech landed a slew of defensive linemen to help its front.

The Hokies landed two of the FCS’s best defensive linemen: Kody Huisman (North Dakota State) and Arias Nash (Mercer). The two could pair up beautifully in the maroon and orange: Huisman uses his large stature to disrupt the offensive line, which opens up Nash to feast in the backfield. Nash racked in 12.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks, and 12 QB hurries in 2024 at Mercer.

The two FCS linemen will join forces with James Djonkam, who leaves Eastern Michigan as their lead tackler in 2024, with 96 total and 11.5 tackles for loss in the backfield. All three will be fighting for playing time in the defensive line, feasting for a chance to cause disruption in not only this contest, but for the remainder of 2025.

Just as the entirety of the Hokies' defense will be bent on disrupting and stopping Bailey and his offense, the Wolfpack will be just as ready to fire back and do the same to Drones. A talented linebacker corps can be one of the most demanding mental challenges for a quarterback to deal with, especially one with an outstanding leader. For NC State, that anchor is Caden Fordham. In 2024, Fordham was the Wolfpack’s tackle leader before suffering a season-ending knee injury in the lead-up to their Week 7 matchup with Syracuse.

It will be crucial to see how Fordham responds after suffering the knee injury. Details surrounding his injury were kept at a minimum, leaving it up to the first weeks of action to see how Fordham has recovered and at what level he will return.

Nov 2, 2024; Syracuse, New York, USA; Virginia Tech Hokies head coach Brent Pry reacts to a play against the Syracuse Orange in the third quarter at JMA Wireless Dome. | Mark Konezny-Imagn Images

Fordham was in the midst of a breakout season before the injury, having matched his entire 2022 defensive output in five full games (in the opening game for NC State, Fordham was ejected for targeting two minutes in).

Though Fordham isn’t impactful in coverage, He’s a lethal hawk-down linebacker who can snuff out even the best rushing attacks. On paper, he stands out as a major hurdle for the Hokies’ offense to overcome.

Fordham's absence was a brutal weak spot to end the Wolfpack’s season on defense, though bright spots did emerge. One of those bright spots was outside linebacker Sean Brown, who earned an All-ACC honorable mention in 2024 while tallying 96 total tackles and three sacks. Without Fordham, Brown was a run-stopping wrecking ball. With Fordham back for 2025, they can pose a very dangerous defensive duo.

With NC State wanting to force an aerial battle, which would allow its secondary to alleviate the stress from its front seven, a strong rushing attack for the Hokies will be pivotal in coming back up to Blacksburg with a victory.

Tech’s new offensive coordinator, Phillip Montgomery, brings an impressive rushing attack with him in his first campaign in maroon and orange. Montgomery ushers in a tricky and confusing rushing style that will wear defenses down, allowing an energized backfield to run wild.

The issue for NC State is the fact that the Hokies have multiple running backs, each of whom can attack defenses in a multitude of ways. Terion Stewart and Braydon Bennett are two backs, both capable of tearing into the Wolfpack’s defense, while returnees Jeremiah Coney and Tyler Mason have flashed upside in limited snaps. Cameron Seldon is also, once again, an option to use in gadget plays against an unproven Wolfpack defense.

Both the Hokies and Wolfpack have gone out and secured a defensive coordinator with NFL-caliber experience for the 2025 season. DJ Eliot joins the NC State squad. Last season, he coached for Baylor, but in 2023, he was the linebackers coach for the Philadelphia Eagles, giving a new look to a positional group that is already the premier position for the Wolfpack defense. Meanwhile, the Hokies usher in Sam Siefkes, who was previously the Arizona Cardinals' linebackers coach.

At the offensive coordinator position, the Wolfpack turned towards Kurt Roper, who enters his seventh year with the program. Roper split his duties across his first six seasons, coaching the running backs and quarterbacks for three seasons apiece.

In conclusion, this matchup is a relatively even-matched game between two programs stuck on the precipice of something more. For Tech, it’s a quest to return to the glory days of Beamer, Vick and Taylor. And for the Wolfpack, it’s to reach the ACC title game for the first time in program history.

Could this be a stepping stone game for a 2025 season that ascends Drones into the upper echelon of the long list of quarterbacks that have left their legacy in Blacksburg? We don’t think it’ll quite reach that level, but predict that Drones will have a solid game and the offense does enough to scrape past NC State. This isn’t a confident prediction, however. This game could go either way and neither of us would be surprised to see Virginia Tech lose. For now, though, we have the Hokies winning and progressing to 4-1 in this hypothetical 2025 season.

Tech plays against the Wolfpack on Sept. 27, with the time yet to be determined.

Thomas' Score: Virginia Tech 35, NC State 28

Kaden's Score: Virginia Tech 38, NC State 35