What Does ESPN's FPI Predict for Virginia Tech’s Remaining 2025 Games After Win Over NC State?

Now that ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) has been updated ahead of Week 6, here's some quick tidbits on how Virginia Tech, as a whole, stands on the index before we get to game-by-game projections.

NEW: Updated ESPN FPI after week 5 of the College Football season📈📉 https://t.co/tQWEPeobnZ pic.twitter.com/YFnTZN6N5W
— On3 (@On3sports) September 28, 2025

Virginia Tech now ranks at No. 65 on the FPI, five spots above last week's No. 70 ranking. The Hokies' projected win-loss record now sits at 4.7-7.4 and the squad now ranks No. 10 in the ACC. At the time of writing, which is Monday afternoon, the Hokies' odds are as follows: 21.4% odds of claiming at least six wins, 0.6% odds of winning the ACC title and 0.3% odds of qualifying for the College Football Playoff.

According to FPI, Virginia Tech's remaining strength of schedule ranks at No. 34, fourth-highest in the ACC, only behind No. 18 Florida State (20), No. 3 Miami (30) and Stanford (31). The Hokies have two remaining games against squads ranked lower on the FPI Metric: Wake Forest this Saturday (No. 86), then Cal (No. 72) on Oct. 24.

Tech's Week 5 victory came against NC State, which dropped three spots to No. 60 after being ranked at No. 57 entering Week 5.

With that, here's the updated FPI game-by-game projections:

Game 6, vs. Wake Forest - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 76.8% chance to win (down 0.9%)

Wake Forest takes a slim chunk out of the Hokies' odds due to almost toppling No. 17 Georgia Tech this past Saturday. Although the Hokies are still favored, Demond Claiborne is one to watch out for; should he and signal-caller Robby Ashford be at 100 percent, the ground game could be very effective Saturday.

FPI record: 3-3, 2-0 ACC

Game 7, at No. 17 Georgia Tech - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 25.3% chance to win (up 6.8%) (prev: 18.5%)

ESPN's FPI projects that Virginia Tech's unbeaten in-conference streak ends here. Behind a two-headed Hydra of Haynes — signal-caller Haynes King and tailback Jamal Haynes — the Yellow Jackets have claimed each of their first five games and look primed to snatch a spot in the ACC championship game, aided by the struggles of preseason favorites Clemson.

FPI record: 3-4, 2-1 ACC

Game 8, vs. California - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 73.2% chance to win (up 0.8%)

The Hokies' chances of winning the contest against California haven't budged much at all; the Golden Bears shined at times against Boston College, but needed a 14-point final frame to escape with a 28-24 win. There were positives, however. California's defense limited Eagles quarterback Dylan Lonergan to 197 yards, no passing touchdowns and a pair of interceptions. The Golden Bears appear solid, but inconsistent. This is a contest that could conceivably go California's way, but for right now, it's the Hokies' game to lose.

FPI record: 4-4, 3-1 ACC

Game 9, vs. Louisville - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 35.3% chance to win (up 2.5%)

At this point in the season, Louisville is one of three teams in the ACC to have an unblemished overall record, alongside No. 3 Miami and No. 17 Georgia Tech. Thus far, Miller Moss has been solid, tallying 1,029 yards, five passing touchdowns and three picks. Moss' strongest game came this past Saturday, where the quarterback completed 33 of 51 passes for 339 passing yards and a trio of scores through the air. The FPI continues to project that the Hokies suffer their first of four straight losses in this clash against the Cardinals.

FPI record: 4-5, 3-2 ACC

Game 10, at No. 18 Florida State - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 17.5% chance to win (up 4%)

Florida State has had quite the rollercoaster to this season. The Seminoles started the season unranked, but after toppling then-No. 8 Alabama, Florida State vaulted as high as No. 8 themselves. However, after dropping a double-overtime contest to now-No. 24 Virginia, 46-38, the Seminoles fell 10 spots in the latest AP poll to No. 18.

Thus far, Florida State signal-caller Tommy Castellanos' numbers haven't looked gaudy; the transfer sports a four-touchdown, three-interception tally through four games. However, his QB rating (78.3) ranks No. 20 in the nation and a large cause for that is his legs. Castellanos has scored four rushing touchdowns this season and through four games, he's logged 41 carries for 217 rushing yards and a quartet of scores.

FPI record: 4-6, 3-3 ACC

Game 11, vs. No. 3 Miami - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 13.5% chance to win (up 1%)

Virginia Tech’s defense has shown cracks in defending the intermediate pass, and Miami’s offense, led by a reinvigorated Carson Beck, is strong enough to exploit that weakness. Moreover, the Hurricanes have deeper talent across both the trenches and skill positions, making it difficult for Tech to control the line of scrimmage. FPI projects that the Hokies will suffer their third straight loss and that a losing season will be guaranteed following this Nov. 22 clash.

FPI record: 4-7, 3-4 ACC

Game 12, at No. 24 Virginia - FPI gives Virginia Tech a 21.7% chance to win (up 1.2%)

Virginia is in the AP Poll this week for the first time in six years. That year, 2019, was also the last occasion since 2003 that the Cavaliers triumphed over Virginia Tech. Although the Hokies are coming off an ACC-opening win, so are the 'Hoos. Virginia tallied a thrilling 46-38 victory over then-No. 8 Florida State on Saturday and behind Chandler Morris, who has tallied 1,279 passing yards and 10 touchdowns in five games, the Cavaliers appear to be dark-horse ACC threats.

J’Mari Taylor, a transfer from NC Central and likely the player Eagles head coach Trei Oliver alluded to in his tampering allegation against Virginia Tech, has also impressed, with 397 rushing yards and seven touchdowns on 75 carries. FPI projects that the Cavaliers capture only their third win over the Hokies in the 21st century.

FPI record: 4-8, 3-5 ACC